789
FXUS62 KMHX 271913
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH IMPROVING SEAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ISSUED NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG COASTAL COMMUNITIES
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY NE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, THEN
WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO MID TO LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE: ELEVATED SEAS MAY BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE FL COAST WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE OBX. THE HIGH WAVES
COMBINED WITH KING TIDES THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS.
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND, SEAS OFFSHORE ARE IN THE 4-5 FOOT RANGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE, BUT THE LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ISSUES FOR VULNERABLE
AREAS. FOR OCEAN- SIDE: HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 0900 PM EDT TODAY.
SOUNDSIDE HIGH TIDES LAG BY UP TO 3 HOURS BEHIND THE OCEANSIDE
TIDES. THE NATIONAL PARKS SERVICE AND NCDOT HAVE REPORTED
SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM SOUTH NAGS HEAD TO BUXTON, ALONG
WITH SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH OCCURRING ON SIDE STREETS IN RODANTHE.
DUE TO HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND FLOODING, NC-12 REMAINS
CLOSED FROM THE MARC BASNIGHT BRIDGE TO RODANTHE.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF VULNERABLE LOCATIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WELL INTO THIS WEEK DESPITE THE DIMINISHING OF WINDS, WITH
"SUNNY DAY" FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TIDAL REGIONS OF ENC
AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE KING TIDES
EASE LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY HIGH PRES WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO COASTAL COMMUNITIES TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO ~20% TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 5% ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, HTS/THICKNESSES BUILD FURTHER, AND TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F
INLAND TO LOW 70S OBX. LOW TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE CLIMO AS WELL
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A
MIX OF IFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AS NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE LINGERS AND HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM. GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH ON IFR CEILINGS SETTING UP,
PRIMARILY FOR INLAND LOCALES, AS EARLY AS 3Z WEDNESDAY,
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE SKIES ARE MORE
CLEAR, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. IN ADDITION, WITH THE
LOW CEILINGS, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THE STRATUS TO LOWER
TO THE GROUND IN THE FORM OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A MESSY
NIGHT OF AVIATION CONDITIONS WHICH COULD BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN
THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): OUTSIDE OF TOMORROW, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT WITH QUASI-
STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION. COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE
OCNL MVFR STCU AT TIMES WITH FLOW CONT OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MARINE
HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE WATERS BRINGING N/NE WINDS 10-15 KTS,
AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING DUE TO THE LONG
PERIOD NATURE OF THE SWELLS. WITH A ~18 HOURS PERIOD OF SEAS
BELOW 6 FT, ELECTED TO DROP THE PREVIOUS SCA, AND ISSUE A NEW
SCA STARTING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT):EARLY WED MORNING RENEWED NERLY PRES
GRADIENT REDEVELOPS WITH SCA SEAS AND/OR WINDS. THE WINDS AND
SEAS FINALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY THU NORTH OF OCRACOKE, AND BY THU
EVENING FOR REMAINING SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HIGH BUILDING IN
LATE WEEK BRINGS PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ195-196-
199-203>205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page