512
FXUS63 KMKX 160325
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO NEARSHORE ZONES.
- RAIN REMAINS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A FEW CLAPS
OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF OFF AND ON, MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CAN'T BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 925 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO PATCHY GROUND FOG BUT THE
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND LIGHT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS MAY AID IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRATUS CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY TO THE EAST. ANY STRATUS
THAT DOES FORM WOULD LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES AN AREA OF
UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM SALT LAKE CITY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CASPER, WY VICINITY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO
FOCUS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WY THIS EVENING AS A
SMALLER-SCALE SHORTWAVE BREAKS OFF FROM THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW.
MOVING IN-TANDEM WITH ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW WILL PULL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN SHORES OF THE HUDSON BAY BY SUNDAY
EVENING/THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS MID-LEVEL LIFT AFFILIATED WITH THE
ENCROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH & LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. TIED TO THE STAGNANT SURFACE LOW ON THE
SOUTHWEST SHORES OF THE HUDSON BAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT'S LATER DAY
PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR THE MILDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY EVENING & NIGHT: RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE
BEST PRECIP PROBABILITIES, AS THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE
FORCING AND LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THESE LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WARMING WITHIN THE 850-700
MB LAYER, AS WELL AS STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK (~100-500 J/KG) MUCAPE. HAVE THUS INSERTED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. NO HAZARDS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE EVENT ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
SYNOPSIS: A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER WEST
TEXAS ON SUNDAY EVENING/THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SAID
TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, ENCOURAGING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TX-OK BORDER. THIS NEWLY-FORMED
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY,
ULTIMATELY REACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, AS WELL AS LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, WILL SUPPORT A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SAID FRONT WILL ALLOW A MUCH COLDER, CANADIAN AIR MASS TO
BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OFF AND ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH
ANY GIVEN ROUND OF ACTIVITY BEING FAR MORE SCATTERED RELATIVE TO
MONDAY NIGHT'S RAIN. WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING, A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK/THE
CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING: ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND
OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THUNDER
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MORE SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT TIMING, IN ADDITION TO
ONGOING ADVECTION OF A COLD/CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, COULD SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN ANY RAIN-
SNOW MIX THAT MATERIALIZES, THOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 925 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM 09-12Z. ANY MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME DISSIPATION IN THE AFTERNOON.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY AS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS INTO CANADA. SAID WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH A
FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN BACK OUT OF
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS 990 MB LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN NEARSHORE ZONES. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO WINTHROP
HARBOR BETWEEN 3 PM CST SATURDAY AND 6 AM CST SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN,
AND RUNS BETWEEN 3 PM CST SATURDAY AND 3 PM CST SUNDAY. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS WINDS
WEAKEN AND TURN OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM SATURDAY TO
6 AM SUNDAY.
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