633
FXUS63 KMKX 161022
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
422 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTH WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF OFF AND ON, MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
PATCHY GROUND FOG CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR
AND NOT AFFECTED BY THE STRATUS CLOUDS MOVING IN. THE FOG MAY
LINGER UNTIL MIDDLE MORNING, OR UNTIL THE STRATUS CLOUDS MOVE
IN.
THE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE AREA, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS UNDER THE INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING, AND MAY PUSH INTO MOST OF THE AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT MAY BE
TOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE. KEPT SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY, WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER
THAN THE LOWER 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH ACROSS WISCONSIN
TONIGHT, WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING AND TRANSPORTING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN, BUT THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD STILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS PER CAMS. THE
TIMING APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, SO
IT MAY BE MORE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
CLAP OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH VERY LOW ELEVATED CAPE ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT RISK IS QUITE LOW SO REMOVED FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT.
A TRAILING AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL CVA AND SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS, SO KEPT POPS IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.
OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
REMAINING GUSTY. MILD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONFIDENT WITH A ROUND OR RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IOWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN INTO MINNESOTA OR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AND FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE, ALONG
WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS ALL WILL RESULT IN STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND HIGH POPS OF 70 TO 90 PERCENT OR MORE. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR, MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA,
WHICH SHOULD LINGER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES.
THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLDER AIR MIXES INTO
THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS THAT
OCCURS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SEEMS TO BE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT ON A
500 MB LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT PHASING WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A DEEP 500 MB
LOW OVER OHIO BY THURSDAY, AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SOME RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. IT DOES NOT LOOK IMPACTFUL THIS FAR OUT AT THIS TIME,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE
ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
PATCHY GROUND FOG WITH VISIBILITY VALUES JUMPING AROUND BETWEEN
1/2 MILE AND 5 MILES CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE STILL
CLEAR. THIS VARIABLE GROUND FOG MAY LINGER UNTIL MIDDLE
MORNING, OR UNTIL THE LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL MOVE IN.
THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE AREA, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING,
AND MAY PUSH INTO MOST OF THE AREA.
DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT MAY BE
TOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE. CEILINGS MAY
RISE TO 3500 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A CLAP OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR.
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH 2000 FOOT AGL WINDS
SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE DRY. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, REMAINING GUSTY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES
MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. SOME GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR
FOR A POSSIBLE GALE WARNING HEADLINE IF THE GALE POTENTIAL
INCREASES.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON, AND
UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THERE. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT ON MONDAY,
AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES SHIFTS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.1 INCHES SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
WEAKEN TO AROUND 29.4 INCHES OVER MINNESOTA OR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE. RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
MAY LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND MAY LINGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM SATURDAY TO
6 AM SUNDAY.
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