240
FXUS63 KMKX 162125
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF RAIN WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT
- PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLDER AIR MASS WORKS IN.
- WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE MID WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND MAY
RETURN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 302 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 850MB WAA WILL SPUR ON SCATTERED AREAS
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT, PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF US HWY 151. MODELS
DEPICT ELEVATED CAPE RANGING FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG, SO A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST AND A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LINGER IN THE REMAINING WEAK FORCE/MOISTURE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING, WEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE DAY, AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS 700MB FGEN MAY CAUSE ENOUGH LIFT TO CREATE SATURATION
ALOFT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS A SMALL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT.
A STRONG PANHANDLE HOOK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE FAIRLY GOOD DYNAMICS
SPURRED ON BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH, LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS
FROM A 300MB JET ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT,
AND STRONG WAA SUPPORT FROM A 50 TO 60 KT 850MB JET. THE BEST
QPF TOTALS LOOK TO BE THE BEST PRIMARILY FROM MADISON,
WESTWARD, WHERE A 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES MAY FALL FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LESSER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1
INCH MAY FALL EAST OF MADISON AS AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 240 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
KICKING OFF THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WITH A PATTERN SHIFT IN
TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY, COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AND ITS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL SIGNIFY THE CHANGE HERE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S. SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST WEEK LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S. WHICH MAY FEEL LIKE A DRASTIC CHANGE FOR
SOME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO EVEN LOW 60S THE DAY
PRIOR (TUESDAY). CONFIDENCE ON THIS TEMPERATURES SHIFT TOWARD
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD. WHILE THE EXACT TEMPERATURES COULD
STILL FLUCTUATE A BIT IN THE COMING DAYS. COOLER WEATHER IS AHEAD.
NOW FOR THE MORE UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. PHASING ISSUES
AGAIN MAKE IT TO THE FOREFRONT OF THE FORECAST IN THE BEST WILL
THEY, WONT THEY FOR THOSE WISHING FOR SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES BARRELING
OUT OF THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AREA. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONFIDENT
THAT THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER. THE REAL QUESTION
COMES DOWN TO THE WHERE, WHEN AND HOW STRONG. WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
FOR DAYS 3-6 HAS THE LARGEST OF THE SPREAD/VARIANCE WITH THE
PHASED TROUGH. SHOWING A DIPOLE STRUCTURE FOR THE PHASED TROUGH IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE SECOND LARGEST
SPREAD BEING MORE MONOPOLE WITH THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST. THIS
HIGHLIGHTS WELL THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT WITH HOW THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER AS DIPOLE STRUCTURES IN THE 500MB
CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATE POSITION AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
LOOKING LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE YOU CAN SEE THIS IN ACTION WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE EURO AND GFS. THE GFS POTENTIALLY
OVER STRENGTHENS THE LOW AND PUSHES IT MUCH FURTHER EAST INTO
ONTARIO/WESTERN NEW YORK. WHICH LEAVES WISCONSIN ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND IS FURTHER WEST AND
MUCH WEAKER IN COMPARISON WITH THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADING SOME
WHERE OVER MICHIGAN.
NOW WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN FOR US LIVING IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE
SHORE COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES A BIT
WITH 60-70% CHANCES. THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH IN SOME AREAS, BUT
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY STUCK TO THE AVERAGE AMONG GUIDANCE. INLAND
AREAS WILL HAVE MUCH LOWER CHANCES AROUND 20-40%. MILD LAKE
MICHIGAN TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM FOR THE LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES WHICH WILL MAKE ANY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL VERY LOW
RESULTING IN MOSTLY RAIN. WESTERN INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING WHICH IS WHERE
THE SNOW CHANCES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST. THIS IS
ASSUMING THAT THE TROUGH PHASES TOGETHER FURTHER WEST TO GIVE MORE
OF THE STATE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IF ANY SNOW DID MIX IN. IT WOULD NOT BE LIKELY TO
SICK TO THE GROUND OR LAST LONG. THE ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS BASED ON THE GUIDANCE THUS FAR WISCONSIN IS NOT THE
STATE THAT IS UNDER THE GUN FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATION. STATES
SOUTH AND EAST OF US WILL HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. EITHER WAY
BEST TO KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE FORECAST AS MORE DETAILS WILL SHAKE
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 252 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED BREAKS OF VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT AREAS OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN SPURRED ON BY
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WIDESPREAD THUNDER MAY REMAIN
LIMITED. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AS THE WARM ADVECTION MOVES OVER THE REGION. RAIN SHOULD LARGELY
END BY DAWN ON SUNDAY, SAVE FOR POTENTIAL A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO WESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 252 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE LAKE IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER
MOST OF THE LAKE WITH GUSTS JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE MORE LIKELY
OVER THE NORTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH IN HOW PREVALENT AND WIDESPREAD GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL BE, SO WE'VE HELD OFF ON A GALE WARNING.
BY SUNDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO WESTERLY BEHIND A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN, EASING
WINDS BY DAWN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
APPEAR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.3 INCHES
APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page