099
FXUS63 KMKX 171000
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY EASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- BRISK WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
AN OCCLUDED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT CROSSED WI LAST
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO THIS MORNING, OUR
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AS AN AREA OF SHEARED
VORTICITY STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THIS STATE,
COINCIDENT WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER JET AND ALSO AN 850MB
FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RISING MOTION WILL
SIT OVER SOUTHERN WI.
THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING, BUT THERE
IS A DIMINISHING TREND. LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING, SO
DRIER AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS GOING TO PLAY A ROLE IN OUR RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT OVER US,
ANY PRECIP WITH THAT LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL NEED TO OVERCOME THE
DRY LAYER. THEREFORE, WE KEPT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LIMITED TO
LESS THAN 20% THIS AFTERNOON, AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JANESVILLE TO MILWAUKEE.
DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER US TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BRIEFLY MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS GETTING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING. THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS
INTO SOUTHEAST NE MONDAY EVENING, THEN WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT
SLIDES NORTHWARD INTO MN BY TUESDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FROM MADISON
AND WEST, WITH A 50 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING AN INCH.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME, THE UPPER LOW WILL PHASE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CYCLOGENESIS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WI ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP. THE WHOLE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO START TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP WILL REACH SOUTHERN WI BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, AND THERMAL PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WET
SNOW SHOWERS. WE HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY, LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND MILD TEMPERATURES, SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES. WE ARE LOOKING DRY FOR NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL, SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
LOW CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
USUAL LOW SPOTS. LOOK FOR RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI FROM
THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 400 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR ZONES SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON AT 12Z/6AM.
THE SHEBOYGAN ZONE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 3PM THIS
AFTERNOON.
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE
FORCE. THIS IS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT, THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
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