187
FXUS63 KMKX 172050
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY EASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- BRISK WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL EITHER DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S OR LOWER
FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PREVENTING MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND
DESPITE THERE BEING SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. KEEPING 10-20%
POPS IN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE EVENT THAT SOME DRIZZLE
MAKES IT TO THE GROUND.
TONIGHT, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING LOWS INTO
THE LOW 30S FOR INLAND AREAS. FOR THOSE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40 DEGREES.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ADVECT OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST HEADING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST IT WILL GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF
STRENGTHEN MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN TUESDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A WARM AIR ADVECTION WING THAT WILL SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5
INCHES AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STEADY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE WILL BE FOR AREAS WEST OF
MADISON.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FIRST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EXPECTED TO BE
DRY AGAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE RAIN AND EVEN
SOME SNOW CHANCES RETURN.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
OUR NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN MINNESOTA SLOWLY BEGINS TO
PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING, A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM ALBERTA CANADA IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD.
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE TOGETHER. AS
THESE TWO SYSTEM PHASE TOGETHER, THERE WILL BE A RESTRENGTHENING
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A REINVIGORATION OF CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET
UP SOME STRONG CAA ACROSS THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
EXPECTED TO FALL TO FREEZING (LOW TO MID 30S) WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
AS THIS PHASED SYSTEM TRACKS EAST WEDNESDAY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WITH THE
INCREASES CYCLOGENESIS THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD NEW YORK. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL SO TOO WILL THE THERMAL PROFILES. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSITION IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MOSTLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS
RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD TRAVEL. WITH THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED, ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX
ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, THERMAL PROFILES ARE A
BIT WARMER DIRECTLY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE MILD LAKE
TEMPERATURES. HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE, DEPENDS ON
HOW STRONG THE CAA IS AND HOW SHALLOW THE WARMER MARINE LAYER
IS. WITH THE TIME OF YEAR, WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES AND
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS AS A
MORE RAIN SNOW MIX AT BEST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME
DELAYED ONSET TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN COMPARISON TO INLAND
AREAS. REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE WHETHER ITS INLAND OR ALONG
THE LAKE, THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES, OVER ALL MILDER
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES, DO
NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO STICK AROUND. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRY. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF THERE COULD BE A RIDGE RUNNING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 251 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IS
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
CLEARED THE STATE. LIGHT DRIZZLE AND VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WIDESPREAD
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A BIT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 251 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE EXPIRATION TIMING FOR
OUR SHEBOYGAN ZONE NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL FURTHER DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OVERHEAD BRINGING A
COUPLE HOUR PERIOD (ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 HRS) OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS
WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST NEAR GALE FORCE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE
ZONES DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE AND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEDNESDAY, WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
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