025
FXUS63 KMKX 181650
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE RAIN. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, AS WELL AS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, FOR FREQUENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES. HIGH
WAVES ARE EXPECTED.
- BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1015 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THINGS REMAIN ON TRACK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS IS A RESULT OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL PVA IN ADDITION TO STRONG MIDLEVEL WAA WITH SOME HELP FROM
BEING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY SLOT THAT
WILL WORK THROUGH AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE
AREA ALBEIT A SHORTER TIME PERIOD FURTHER WEST, SO A LULL IN THE
RAIN MAY OCCUR PARTS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 426 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING FOR JEFFERSON, WAUKESHA, GREEN, ROCK, WALWORTH, RACINE
AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. VISIBILITY VALUES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TIMES IN THESE AREAS. SOME OF THIS MAY
TRY TO REACH INTO DODGE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES, BUT AREA WEB
CAMERAS WERE NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG IN THESE AREAS. IT MAY BE MORE
GROUND FOG HERE AND ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION, THE CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA SHOULD HELP GRADUALLY IMPROVE VISIBILITY VALUES
AFTER 12Z OR SO.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE RAIN WILL PUSH IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA ALOFT. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RAIN, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THERE MAY BE A DRY SLOT THAT WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO A LULL IN THE RAIN
MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. THE SECOND PORTION OF THE RAIN THEN
MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT WITHIN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND
DIFFERENTIAL CVA AND LEFT EXIT REGION DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES, OR AROUND 20 PERCENT, FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING INTO LATER TONIGHT, WITH WEAK ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, REMAINING GUSTY. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH DRIER AIR, HELPING END THE RAIN.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S
IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 426 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
COLD AIR WILL BEGIN WRAPPING INTO SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SPIN OVER THE ND/MN/MB BORDER.
MEANWHILE, A VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER KS AND SWING THROUGH NORTHERN IL. VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS WAVE, ALONG WITH A COUPLED
UPPER JET, WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN
IL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z MODELS INTRODUCED LIGHT
QPF OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI, SO WE
INCREASED POPS OVER THE NBM TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT).
THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS FOCUSED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF IT
WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP INTO COLD ENOUGH AIR FOR SNOW
CRYSTALS TO FORM.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE NEXT WAVE CIRCULATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI.
AGAIN, THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE MAY INHIBIT SNOW
CRYSTALS, AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. KEPT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, COLDER
AIR WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C AT 850MB WILL WORK INTO
SOUTHERN WI. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE
ABLE TO TAP INTO COLD ENOUGH AIR TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE LIGHT, SO ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW WOULD BE
ANTICIPATED.
THE GFS TRIES TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
SWING IT NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
FUJIWARA EFFECT. THE NAM AND ECMWF DEEPEN THAT LOW MUCH FURTHER
EAST OVER LAKE ERIE AND TRACK IT OVER THE EAST COAST, ALLOWING
THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN WI TO END QUICKER. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE CLUSTERED TIGHTLY TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION, WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE MORE SPREAD AND
GIVE A NOD TO THE GFS IDEA. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW DUE TO THE INHERENT MODEL
DIFFICULTIES WITH HANDLING UPPER LEVEL PHASING.
WHILE MANY OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY DRY
FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY PERIOD, THE MORE BROAD-
BRUSHED, CONSERVATIVE NBM KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN WI
FOR THIS WHOLE TIME. THAT CHANCE SEEMS JUSTIFIED. IF A WAVE OF
VORTICITY CAN CROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE
COULD SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION, AT LEAST ON GRASSY
SURFACES. THE COLD AIR WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
OUR COLDEST NIGHT FORECAST TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S INLAND.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1045 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THINGS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH THE
INITIAL RAIN PUSHING IN NOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INT THE
EVENING. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN,
WITH MVFR CIGS PUSHING IN AND GRADUALLY FALLING TO IFR WITH
VSBYS OF 2 TO 5 MILES DUE TO THE RAIN.
THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT THAT WORKS THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN
WI, PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WI THIS EVENING, SO A LULL
IN THE RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL LINGER WITH THE CIGS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THIS
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS STILL 2-5 MI
DEPENDING ON THE RAIN RATES.
ADDITIONALLY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 2000
FEET AGL AROUND 50 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO LATER TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES
OVERALL ARE LOW.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, REMAINING GUSTY. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING DRIER AIR, HELPING END THE RAIN.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 426 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.1 INCHES MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE LAKE, LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GALES ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES, AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE LAKE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WAVES WILL BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE GALES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN STARTING THIS EVENING FOR INCREASING EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, FOR FREQUENT EAST SOUTHEAST GALES. HIGH WAVES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY, AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL THEN
SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN A BIT TO
AROUND 29.3 INCHES, RESULTING IN EASING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
AND ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES AS
WELL.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
TO 10 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY.
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