129
FXUS63 KMKX 182047
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
247 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
RAIN. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, AS WELL AS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, FOR FREQUENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES. HIGH
WAVES ARE EXPECTED.
- BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY:
THINGS REMAIN LARGELY ON TRACK (ALBEIT A TAD QUICKER THAN
EXPECTED) AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH HAS BEGAN TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS IS A RESULT OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL PVA
IN ADDITION TO STRONG MIDLEVEL WAA WITH SOME HELP FROM BEING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRY SLOT THAT WILL WORK
THROUGH AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COULD INCLUDE MOST OF THE AREA ALBEIT
A SHORTER TIME PERIOD FURTHER WEST, SO A LULL IN THE RAIN MAY
OCCUR PARTS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE SECOND PORTION OF THE RAIN WILL THEN MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE RESULT OF STRENGTHENED PVA
WITH CONTINUED LLJ SUPPORT WITHIN WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. WE ALSO HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER GIVEN SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE BUT
WIDESPREAD THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED. DURING THIS PERIOD WINDS
WILL PICK UP WITH PRECIP LOADING MIXING DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AROUND 950MB WITH WINDS NEAR 35-40KTS. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT THEY SEEM
LARGELY TRANSITORY AND MOST ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL PUSH
THE RAIN OUT BUT WILL ALSO BRING ALONG A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST, REMAINING A BIT GUSTY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS LOWER 60S IN FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN, UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THOUGH RAW MODELS ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE TUESDAY.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIKELY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAYS WE WILL LIKELY SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT JUST EXITED WILL SWING BACK DOWN AND GET INGESTED BY
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN MICHIGAN. THERE IS LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN OUT BUT BASED ON THE HUGE
UPPER CLOSED LOW THE FORCING WILL BE THERE FOR SOME PRECIP
ACTIVITY. SHOWER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY HAS DECREASED BUT STILL
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MORE OF
A MIX TOWARD EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE LOW IN CANADA GETS
INGESTED BY THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER MICHIGAN.
THIS LOW IN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY WHILE
CIRCLING INSIDE LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIP TO PARTS OF OR ALL OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
INTO THURSDAY. WHAT EXACTLY OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND
ON A VARIETY OF FACTORS BUT CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY WITH EVEN A CHANCE FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW DEPENDING ON TEMPS AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OUT WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING.
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET AT THIS
TIME THOUGH GIVEN THE SET UP ALOFT IT STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN BUT
A BREAK OF SOME SORT IS EXPECTED AFTER AN ACTIVE WEEK OF
WEATHER. SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD THEN BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
GIVEN SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY BUT WILL SOMETHING TO WATCH INTO
NEXT WEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 245 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THINGS REMAIN LARGELY ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING NORTH
AS RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL A BIT MORE DELAYED BUT WILL BE EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS HAVING PUSHED IN WITH AREAS EXPECTED TO
FALL TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS OF 2 TO 5 MILES DUE TO THE RAIN.
THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT THAT WORKS THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN
WI, PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WI THIS EVENING, SO A LULL
IN THE RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO LATER TONIGHT, BUT
CHANCES OVERALL ARE LOW.GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER WITH
THE CIGS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS STILL 2-5 MI DEPENDING ON THE RAIN RATES.
ADDITIONALLY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 2000
FEET AGL AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, REMAINING GUSTY. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING DRIER AIR, HELPING END THE RAIN.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 245 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE, LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GALES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES, AND A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE WHOLE LAKE FOR LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE NEARSHORE A SMALL CRAFT
WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING UNTIL BECOMING A GALE WARNING
LATER TONIGHT, ALSO CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE INTO TUESDAY, AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT INTO
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN A BIT, RESULTING IN
EASING WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING GALES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS OVER MICHIGAN. NEARSHORE WILL LIKELY SEE EXTENDED
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT TO GALE CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
TO 10 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM MONDAY
TO 3 PM TUESDAY.
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