779
FXUS63 KMKX 191030
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
430 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY
THIS MORNING, BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS, VEERING SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING FOR
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE, AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTH HALF. FREQUENT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH GALES ARE EXPECTED,
WITH HIGH WAVES.
- SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES. IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDLE
MORNING, WITH THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND EXIT BY MIDDAY, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT. CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THIS MORNING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARM
AND MOIST CONDITIONS INTO THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS
TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS, WHICH SHOULD BRING COOLER LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WEST TO AROUND 40 FAR EAST.
AN APPROACHING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA
LATER TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE, MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. ADDED
AROUND 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ND/MN/MB BORDER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE DAY. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS IL AND IN BY MIDDAY WED. THIS
VORT MAX WILL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER FAR EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE NEW SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER LOW, SO IT WILL TRACK WNW INTO
FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI BY WED EVENING WHILE INTENSIFYING. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ROUGHLY FROM THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION AND TRACK IS
INCREASING. THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO, AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HRS. THE NAM IS FARTHER EAST WITH
THAT LOW AND THE CANADIAN IS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS.
THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN WI. THE
FIRST ONE IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW SLIDES OVER CENTRAL WI AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WI
FROM THE WEST. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, AND THE THERMAL PROFILE
SUPPORTS MAINLY SNOW. OF COURSE THE LOWEST LAYER WILL BE SLOWEST
TO COOL AND WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE AN EVOLUTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, SINCE SNOW SHOULD MELT WHEN IT HITS
THE ROADS. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS DURING THIS TIME.
THE NEXT PERIOD IS THURSDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY THIS
DAY. PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD
BE TRACKING DOWN THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE
INLAND EXTENT (AND AMOUNT) OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE DETERMINED BY
THE TRACK OF THAT SURFACE LOW, SO IF IT FAVORS AN EASTERLY TRACK
TOWARD LAKES HURON AND ERIE, SOUTHERN WI WILL NOT SEE MUCH
PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW TO HANDLE THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE MAINLY
SNOW, WITH IT ACCUMULATING BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM DURING THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR, WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 30. ACCUMULATION
ON THE WARMER ROADWAYS WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE IF RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH. THE TIME THAT THE PRECIP MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WI WILL
ALSO BE IMPORTANT. WE WILL NEED ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL RUNS TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE MICHIGAN LOW WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS INTO
IN AND OH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
OVERHEAD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE BY 12Z
THIS MORNING, AS SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
AGL SLOWLY WEAKEN.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDLE
MORNING. CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AND 2 TO 5 MILE
VISIBILITY WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS FOR EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE INTO THIS MORNING. WESTERN TERMINALS ALREADY
HAVE SOME MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS, AND SHOULD SLOWLY RISE AS WELL.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA AND EXIT BY MIDDAY, WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
VEERING SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND REMAINING GUSTY BEHIND IT.
GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR TERMINALS IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT, BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.1 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA TODAY AND LINGER THERE
TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GALES INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE, AS WELL
AS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GALES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON, FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING HIGH WAVES.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BECOME MORE MODEST INTO LATER TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BRING GALES TO THE OPEN WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS,
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS OVER
MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-
LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
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