707
FXUS63 KMKX 191642 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1042 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. FREQUENT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
GALES ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGH WAVES.
- SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTES. IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR FALL A DEGREE OR
TWO INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDLE
MORNING, WITH THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND EXIT BY MIDDAY, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWEST BEHIND IT. CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO THIS MORNING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARM
AND MOIST CONDITIONS INTO THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN DEVELOPS
TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS, WHICH SHOULD BRING COOLER LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WEST TO AROUND 40 FAR EAST.
AN APPROACHING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA
LATER TONIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE, MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. ADDED
AROUND 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ND/MN/MB BORDER
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE DAY. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS IL AND IN BY MIDDAY WED. THIS
VORT MAX WILL LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER FAR EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE NEW SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER LOW, SO IT WILL TRACK WNW INTO
FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI BY WED EVENING WHILE INTENSIFYING. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ROUGHLY FROM THE TRAVERSE CITY AREA TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION AND TRACK IS
INCREASING. THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO, AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HRS. THE NAM IS FARTHER EAST WITH
THAT LOW AND THE CANADIAN IS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS.
THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF CONCERN FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN WI. THE
FIRST ONE IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW SLIDES OVER CENTRAL WI AND COLD AIR RUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WI
FROM THE WEST. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, AND THE THERMAL PROFILE
SUPPORTS MAINLY SNOW. OF COURSE THE LOWEST LAYER WILL BE SLOWEST
TO COOL AND WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE AN EVOLUTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY REDUCTION WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, SINCE SNOW SHOULD MELT WHEN IT HITS
THE ROADS. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS DURING THIS TIME.
THE NEXT PERIOD IS THURSDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY THIS
DAY. PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT SHOULD
BE TRACKING DOWN THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE
INLAND EXTENT (AND AMOUNT) OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE DETERMINED BY
THE TRACK OF THAT SURFACE LOW, SO IF IT FAVORS AN EASTERLY TRACK
TOWARD LAKES HURON AND ERIE, SOUTHERN WI WILL NOT SEE MUCH
PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW TO HANDLE THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE MAINLY
SNOW, WITH IT ACCUMULATING BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM DURING THE
MORNING RUSH HOUR, WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 30. ACCUMULATION
ON THE WARMER ROADWAYS WILL ONLY BE POSSIBLE IF RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH. THE TIME THAT THE PRECIP MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WI WILL
ALSO BE IMPORTANT. WE WILL NEED ANOTHER DAY OF MODEL RUNS TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE MICHIGAN LOW WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS INTO
IN AND OH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
OVERHEAD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1041 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
HANG ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE MADISON AREA EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HREF IS SHOWING A 50-70% CHANCE
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS, THEN BECOME
LIGHTER AND WESTERLY TONIGHT. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.1 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA TODAY AND LINGER THERE
TONIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GALES INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE, AS WELL
AS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THE GALES WILL LINGER INTO THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON, FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING HIGH WAVES.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BECOME MORE MODEST INTO LATER TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BRING GALES TO THE OPEN WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS,
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS OVER
MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ARE POSSIBLE BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
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