902
FXUS63 KMKX 200443
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITES POSSIBLE.
- A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY THE AFTERNOON. REDUCED
VISIBILITES WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON
ROADS MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1040 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
AN AREA OF 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY AN ARC
OF 10,000 FT AGL CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA / NORTHERN MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN, PROVIDING A 15-50% CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE TONIGHT / EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT PASSES BY (WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS KENOSHA). THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN (IF
APPLICABLE), FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TOWARDS MID
DAY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH SOUTH TOWARDS THE IL
BORDER, CLOSER TO 25 MPH FURTHER NORTH.
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS MAY INITIALLY BE
COMPOSED OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW (WITH ONLY SHALLOW DENDRITIC
ZONE SATURATION ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS INITIALLY, AND SFC AIR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S LEADING TO MELTING), BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW QUICKLY AS CLOUD ICE INCREASES
AND SURFACE TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID/LOW 30S. THE NEAR / ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE OFF/ON
SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKE THIS ROUND OF PRECIP
RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT, BUT SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
(BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW) WILL BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY AM REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST, AS
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM AFD.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THERE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES TOWARDS THE
ILLINOIS BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF MADISON LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE
SHORTWAVE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN SHOWERS, BUT KEPT THE CHANCES AT AROUND 50 PERCENT DUE TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS WILL BE. GIVEN
THE LIKELY BRIEF NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND DAYTIME HIGHS
TOMORROW INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 40S, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT
FROM THE SNOW ASIDE FROM REDUCED VISIBILITES AT TIMES.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR, AS THE BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE SAG SOUTHWARD.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. A RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY,
BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. OVERALL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS SHOW A PERIOD OF TIME
THURSDAY MORNING OF ALL SNOW, WITH POTENTIALLY DECENT SNOWFALL
RATES FOR A SHORT WHILE. THOUGH PAVEMENT TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
MILD SIDE GIVEN THE RECENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, SNOWFALL RATES
AND THE EARLY TIME OF DAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS. ALSO, WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WITH THE FALLING SNOW.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP PER
THE NAM (AND SOME GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) WOULD POTENTIALLY
ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS AND LESS SNOWFALL. THIS WOULD ALSO IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE LESS. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT SPREAD IN
LIQUID EQUIVALENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AMONG MODELS. KEPT
THE FORECAST PRECIP TOTALS ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR NOW, ENDING
UP LOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC TOTALS THROUGH
NOON. THERE IS SOME SPREAD EAST TO WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, WHICH WOULD IMPACT PRECIP TOTALS AS WELL, THOUGH MODELS
SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL BRING A MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR ANY LINGERING
PRECIP. ALSO, ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
MELT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT
TO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LEANS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, POSSIBLY
WARMING BACK TOWARDS 50 ON SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING PUSHES
IN. THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE ACTIVE THEN EARLY WEEK, WITH A RETURN
OF PRECIP CHANCES. NOT A LOT OF CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WITH
TIMING AND TYPE OF PRECIP GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONG MODELS.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1040 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MVFR CIGS AROUND 2,500 FT WILL EGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH
SOME LOW END VFR (3,500 FT) TRAILING BEHIND IT. AN ARC OF 10,000
FT CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MO / SOUTHERN IA IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE INTO A NORTH-SOUTH-ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN, WITH PROB30
GROUPS IN THE TAFS WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS.
THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR EASTERN TERMINALS (CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN)
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER AND VFR (WITH CLOUDS DECREASING TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE) EXPECTED MID DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACH FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
/ EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH ANY
SHOWERS. SOME SNOW/RAIN MIX IS POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
SHOWERS, TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. THE WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS, COUPLED WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (DECREASING TO LOW 30S IN THE
EVENING) SHOULD HELP REDUCE IMPACTS, BUT BRIEF BURSTS OF
MODERATE SNOW (WITH IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE) WILL BE A CONCERN.
A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DROP
TO AN OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30, THEN BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AM, GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 30-35 KT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIFT INTO MANITOBA THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
FOR LINGERING HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAKE HURON AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE DEEPENING A BIT. WINDS WILL
EASE INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST LOW PULLS AWAY, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHENING TOMORROW AS THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
MAY GET NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN TOMORROW.
STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS
THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH A ROUND OF
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565...MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-
LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
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