476
FXUS63 KMKX 151511
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT ROAD TEMPS
SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM COMES
IN.
- ACTIVE WEEK WITH 2-3 WEAK SYSTEMS POSSIBLY COMING THROUGH.
UPDATE
ISSUED 911 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE FOG TRENDS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, WITH COLD GROUND (WI MESONET
SITES ALL SHOWING 2" SOIL TEMPS OF 31-33F) AIDING IN FOG
FORMATION. LATER TODAY, WE THEN GET INTO A WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
REGIME AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, WHICH MAY JUST REINFORCE THE LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS, BUT THERE'S A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY PART OR
ALL OF THE ADVISORY WILL END UP BEING EXTENDED.
BOXELL
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 312 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
AS RAIN COMES TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHERN WI, THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, SO WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING A REFREEZE BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THAT THERE ARE GOING
TO BE SOME ICY SPOTS OUT THERE WHERE ROADS HAVE A FROST BUILT UP
UNDER THEM. 15.00Z HREF VIS PROBS OF <1/4SM START TO RAMP UP IN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH THE LIKELY DENSE FOG LASTING FROM
AROUND 4AM THROUGH NOON AS THE DECAYING SURFACE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH. HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LIGHTENING WINDS
WILL HELP LEAD TO THESE VIS DROPS. IT'S POSSIBLE THE DENSE FOG
STICKS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE FOG. THE
15.06Z HRRR SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY GETTING INTO SW WI AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN TRACKING TO THE EAST AND BEING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
BY 6AM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, SO NO CONCERN OVER
IT FREEZING OR BEING SNOW.
HALBACH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 312 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SOME COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY MORNING
MONDAY. OVERALL, THINGS LOOK TO BE A BIT ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A FEW SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TABBED TO COME THROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IL. THE MAIN
FORCING APPEARS TO COME FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH, SO THE
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP ARE MAINLY DUE TO THAT
FEATURE. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR SNOW FOR THIS SYSTEM, BUT 15.00Z
GFS/EURO ENSEMBLES AREN'T TOO EXCITED WITH PROBABILITIES OF OVER
1" BEING VERY LOW AT LESS THAN 20%.
A SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY COMES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO FOR
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW. THE GFS WOULD BE A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE OF A SNOW PRODUCER FOR US AS THE EURO TRACKS
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON DOWN INTO NORTHERN IL.
WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR FOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HALBACH
AVIATION
ISSUED 911 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SUB-500 FT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ONLY IMPROVING (AT BEST) TO A MILE OR
TWO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IT REMAINS
BELOW A MILE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE FOG, DRIZZLE
IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ONCE
THAT FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY ON MONDAY
AND BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 312 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AS A NUMBER OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM
AS THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST IOWA WEAKENS. SOME HIGH WAVES WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT FETCH OF THE WINDS THE PAST DAY. THE NEXT PERIOD OF
HIGHER WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE AND BRINGS SOME HIGHER WINDS TO POSSIBLY
GALES. BEYOND THAT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS APPEARS TO
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE LATER IN THE WEEK.
HALBACH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM
SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 PM
SUNDAY.
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