901
FXUS63 KMKX 160403 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1003 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG REMAINS A CONCERN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN, BUT
MAY EXPAND BACK TO THE EAST TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION
REMAINS LOW.
- LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, THEN TURNING
BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOLER MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1003 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG. STILL SEEING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES WITHIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AREA, THOUGH WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SOME THIS EVENING AS THE WIND HAS
INCREASED. THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR DENSE FOG AT TIMES
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING,
THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT CONDITIONS FOR
CHUNKS OF TIMES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA AND THE POSSIBLE EVENTUAL EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY INTO THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT, WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
AND OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED. THE SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW STILL LOOKS GOOD
AS WELL.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 257 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-39/90 AND HIGHWAY 26. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT FOG WILL EXPAND/BECOME MORE DENSE OVERNIGHT.
TO THE EAST, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT FOG FILLS BACK IN TONIGHT AS
WELL, BUT THIS CHANCE IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. ALONG WITH THE
FOG POTENTIAL, PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS TURN WESTERLY MONDAY AND WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
40S, WITH LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 257 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES
(30-40 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
QPF TRENDS HAVE BEEN DISTINCTLY DOWNWARD OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CHILLY AND BREEZY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. A MORE INTERESTING CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PUT DOWN A SWATH OF
SNOW, BUT THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL SYSTEM TRACKS--
ANYWHERE FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE UP OF MICHIGAN--AT THIS
DISTANCE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COLDER AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 1003 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE AND CEILINGS UNDER 5 HFT OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SOME EARLY TOMORROW
AS DAYTIME MIXING KICKS IN, BUT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENTS WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 257 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE OPEN WATERS, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND NIGHT. ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS ONTARIO WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MIDDAY MONDAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING TURNING WESTERLY AND BECOMING GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. WEST WINDS TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE
NEARSHORE AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON
THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. WAVES IN THIS AREA WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ062-
WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
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