440
FXUS63 KMKX 161730
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1130 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A
RAIN SHOWER BEHIND IT THIS AFTERNOON.
- 50-60% CHANCES FOR A LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW TO FALL
IN THIS WINDOW, BUT COULD IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
- COOLER MID TO LATE WEEK. INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1117 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
FORECAST DETAILS LARGELY REMAIN ON TRACK. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT, AND THE INTRUSION OF NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR AND
HIGHER WINDS.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
CURRENTLY OBSERVING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST-CENTRAL WI (THOUGH
THE FOG COULD POSSIBLY FILL IN THERE AS WELL). FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING, VEERING WINDS FROM SOUTH TO WEST AND BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE / LIGHT RAIN. WEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH). DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40, WEST WINDS GRADUALLY DECELERATE. DRY
WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH IS
DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM SECTION OF THIS AFD.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY COUPLED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WORK TOGETHER TO CREATE A ZONE OF 700MB FGEN
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT. MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT ON DGZ SATURATION AND A SUB-FREEZING AIR COLUMN
(INDICATING THAT SNOW IS LIKELY THE ONLY PRECIP TYPE), AND AGREE
ON A SWATH OF LIGHT QPF. OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A REGION-WIDE
LIGHT SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN 1 INCH, BEGINNING AFTER SUNSET
TUESDAY, PEAKING IN INTENSITY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM
WEDNESDAY, THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THOUGH THIS IS ONLY A LIGHT SNOWFALL, THE TIMING OF IT
WOULD ALLOW FOR IMPACTS TO THE WEDNESDAY AM COMMUTE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA CANADA / THE DAKOTAS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST AIRFLOW AND COLD ADVECTION,
SENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURE INTO THE TEENS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO ILLINOIS THURSDAY
/ THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DELIVER ANOTHER BATCH OF
SNOWFALL, LIKELY AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN THE PRIOR SYSTEM (TOO
EARLY TO ESTIMATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT COULD EASILY DELIVER AN
INCH OF SNOW TO OUR CWA, PERHAPS EVEN MULTIPLE INCHES IF THE
SYSTEM TRACKS JUST RIGHT).
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S / LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ARE LIKELY FOLLOWING THURSDAY'S POTENTIAL SNOWFALL.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1130 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
ALSO BE ELIMINATED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GROW GUSTY AND WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 400 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE, POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING / BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS VEER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BECOME GUSTY (ROUGHLY 30 KT). A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES MOVES FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES MOVES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTINUE
EASTWARD, WESTERLY WINDS DECELERATE TUESDAY. MODEST NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.5 INCHES TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878 UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM MONDAY TO 6
AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...3 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
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