041
FXUS63 KMKX 162113
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY
WEST WINDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT THIS
EVENING.
- 50-70% CHANCES FOR A LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 0.5 TO 1 INCH TO FALL IN THIS
WINDOW, BUT COULD IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- COOLER MID TO LATE WEEK. 50 TO 80% CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 309 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
A COLD FRONT HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE AREA OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS
FOLLOWING SOME LAGGING PVA BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH TIME
FOLLOWING THE TROUGH. WEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED FOLLOWING THE
FRONT, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
A SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, PROMOTING LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD QUICKLY
CLOUD BACK OVER AS WAA INCREASED ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BANDED SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWING THE WAA AND FGEN. AT THIS TIME, TOTAL
QPF APPEARS TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AMID LOW SLRS
RANGING FROM 8:1 TO 12:1. OVERALL SNOWFALL FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH
LOOKS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WON'T BE MUCH,
LINGERING SNOWFALL EAST OF MADISON CLOSER TO DAYBREAK MAY CAUSE
SOME SLICK TRAVEL FOR THE WED MORNING COMMUTE.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 312 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
NWLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WED NT AS A NARROW SFC RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS WI. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE VIA WARM ADVECTION AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PASS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE NORTH
TO SOUTH EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS A NICE
COMPROMISE. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THU AM ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
MADISON VIA 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS, THEN
SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN WI. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM
0.10 INCHES TOWARD THE IL BORDER TO 0.20-0.25 TOWARD CENTRAL WI. A
GENERAL 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR
VARIABILITY IN QPF AND SNOW RATIO. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL THU NT-FRI VIA NNELY WINDS.
A LARGE POLAR HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO OR THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STILL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. ONE OR TWO VORTICITY MAXIMUMS IN NNWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SKIM BY TO THE WEST, BUT POPS FOR LGT SNOW MAY BE NEEDED IF
THEY TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NRN GREAT PLAINS.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 256 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND MARGINAL VFR
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TOWARD THE LOW LEVELS FOLLOWING
A COLD FRONT AND WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, FACILITATING
LOW LEVEL MIXING. WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME SCT FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS CALM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 252 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD JAMES BAY TONIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. SOME OCCASIONAL WINDS CLOSE TO GALE
FORCE MAY OCCUR ON A MORE ISOLATED BASIS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BACK OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AND
BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
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