111
FXUS63 KMKX 200402
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1002 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LGT-MDT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE HEAVIEST RATES OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI VIA LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
- LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. HENCE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LONGER (THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY) FOR THESE REGIONS.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MAY FALL AS RAIN DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1000 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
AN EARLIER EVENING BAND OF OVERACHIEVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS TAPERED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A
500 MB VORT MAX & ATTENDANT WEAKENING OF WAA & FGEN WITHIN THE
700-500 MB LAYER. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUE AS OF 945 PM. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF 1016
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH THE FEATURE
FORECAST TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE. RESULTANT TURNING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST & EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN, AS WELL AS
ATTENDANT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AS FLOW MOVES ONSHORE, WILL
SUPPORT AREAS OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SAID SNOW IS LIKELY TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FROM THE HREF POINT
TOWARD HOURLY RATES REMAINING AT/BELOW A HALF AN INCH. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN ADVANCE OF THIS
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAKE FORECASTS ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 304 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
A WELL DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXITING EAST CENTRAL WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A 700MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IS FOLLOWING IT WITH A MDT TO HEAVY
BAND OF SNOW. THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
WI BY EARLY EVENING THEN STALL. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER SW MN WILL DIVE SEWD TO WEST CENTRAL IL BY 06Z
FRI, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL REACH THE
SAME REGION BY 12Z FRI.
AT THE SFC, A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NRN IA WILL TRACK
TO CENTRAL IN BY 12Z FRI WITH NO DEEPENING EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
PASSES TO THE SOUTH, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL WI WILL
SHIFT BACK SWD WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED AS
IT DOES SO. LAKE ENHANCEMENT VIA SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKING NELY WILL LIKELY ADD A FEW INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW TO ERN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY THROUGH 15Z FRI. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERAL HOURS OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IS LOW TO MDT SO WILL CONTINUE A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, A LGT-
MDT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TNT GIVEN THE SUSTAINED CYCLONIC
FLOW AND PVA THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING BACK SWD THROUGH THE AREA.
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINING
COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 18Z TODAY UNTIL 18Z FRI ARE 3-6 INCHES IN
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA WITH 5-9 INCHES OVER ERN SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 304 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. EVEN WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE, WE'LL LIKELY STILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS AROUND AS A WEAK,
DRY SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AND WAA WILL RETURN ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH WAA AND THE
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MAKING A WEST TO EAST SWIPE ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE BETTER
FORCING SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE CLOSER
TO THE WAVE, LEAVING WEAKER ASCENT IN THE WAA REGIME OVER OUR CWA.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE FAIRLY LIGHT PRECIP, WITH PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPES BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO RAIN THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WEAK
WAA SHOULD RETURN CHRISTMAS EVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, FAILING
TO BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING. A SLOW
THAW SHOULD THEN HAPPEN THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND BEYOND AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1000 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
A MIXTURE OF MVFR, IFR, AND LIFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH -SN
AND SN ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY, TAPERING AT WESTERN TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. -SN/SN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT
LAKE MICHIGAN TERMINALS, WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL SUPPORT
PRECIP THROUGH MID-DAY. PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AT ALL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TERMINALS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH READINGS REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 304 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
29.9 INCH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL TRACK TO INDIANA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
FORECAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER FRIDAY NIGHT AS 30.6 INCH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SAID AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SHEBOYGAN TO
WINTHROP HARBOR INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
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