637
FXUS63 KMKX 201040
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
440 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 6
AM CST THIS MORNING. SOME SLICK ROADS FOR THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE ARE EXPECTED.
- AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS MORNING, LEADING TO SLICK
ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THESE AREAS.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY, WHICH MAY
FALL AS RAIN DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRACK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A FINAL AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. CAMS
SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY AROUND 6 AM CST WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION,
SO KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING UNTIL THIS TIME FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME SLICK ROADS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TIMES
THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ONSHORE
WINDS, FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE AND LAND AREAS NEXT TO IT.
ALREADY SEEING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SETTING UP
FROM MANITOWOC TO EAST OF DOOR COUNTY, WHICH CAMS SUGGEST SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT BAND WILL CLIP THE LAKESHORE AREAS.
MOST OF THE CAMS KEEP THIS BAND JUST OFFSHORE, BUT GIVEN HOW
CLOSE IT MAY TRACK, KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
MIDDAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IF IT DOES CLIP ANY LAND AREAS,
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR OR MORE MAY OCCUR
IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. SOME SMALLER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ADDITION TO THIS SINGLE BAND. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON CST FOR AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.
INLAND AREAS MAY SEE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON, AND
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH ONLY
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SATURDAY FOR HIGHS. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER GOING FOR
SATURDAY.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SYNOPSIS: CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS AN ARCTIC HIGH MIGRATES TOWARD THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. GIVEN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS ACTIVITY. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH
OF NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW/ATTENDANT ARCTIC AIR OCCURRING IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY'S SYSTEM, RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES APPEAR
POISED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH CHRISTMAS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARRIVE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SNOW, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MILD ENOUGH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF
THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIMING TRENDS REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM, AS OVERNIGHT VERSUS DAY TIMING IS LIKELY TO HEAVILY
INFLUENCE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPES.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY: WITH NO MAJOR PUSH OF
NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE MONDAY SYSTEM, A RELATIVELY
MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED REGIONALLY. THE OVERNIGHT
UPDATE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ON CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 30S ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
THE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WITH 1 TO 2 MILE VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS OF 500 TO 1000 FEET AGL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A FINAL
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AROUND
12Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAY STILL OCCUR
BEFORE THEY SHIFT SOUTH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TIMES
THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY FOR TERMINALS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
ALREADY SEEING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SETTING UP
FROM MANITOWOC TO EAST OF DOOR COUNTY, AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL CLIP
THE LAKESHORE TERMINALS.
THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND MAY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE, BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT MAY AFFECT THE LAKESHORE TERMINALS TO WARRANT
WATCHING ITS PROGRESSION SOUTH. IF IT DOES CLIP ANY TERMINALS,
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR OR MORE MAY OCCUR
IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. SOME SMALLER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ADDITION TO THIS SINGLE BAND, AND BRING
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 1/4 INCH PER HOUR AND 1 TO 2 MILE
VISIBILITY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.
INLAND TERMINALS MAY SEE LOW CEILINGS SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION, WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER GOING FOR
SATURDAY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A
FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE OPEN WATERS, THOUGH CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, WITH ONSHORE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH
ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES MAY OCCUR
THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL TAPER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS
EAST ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WOOD/QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
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