675
FXUS63 KMKX 211004
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
404 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR NEXT
WEEK.
- THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW THAT OCCURS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL KEEP COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS, WITH LOWER 20S IN FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE SMALL SPREAD IN
ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE RANGES. SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH MAY
LIMIT THE LOWS TONIGHT FROM DROPPING MORE.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME GUSTY, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR
HIGHS SUNDAY. SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN THE
LOW LEVELS FIRST, BEFORE MORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS A LACK OF ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE AIR COLUMN, THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, IF
MORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES SOONER, THEN MORE LIGHT SNOW WOULD
BE FAVORED.
FOR NOW, ADDED SMALL CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY, AS
THE LOW AND A FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE ICE CRYSTALS
WOULD THEN FAVOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH THIS GENERAL TREND IN THE FORECAST FOR LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FOR MESSAGING PURPOSES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
500 MB FLOW GENERALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES. WENT WITH THE NBM POPS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. GIVEN HOW MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PER ENSEMBLE TRENDS, ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. ALSO, THE MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HELP GRADUALLY MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY. SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL
MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL THEN
DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY
AND LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES MOVES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA.
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO
TUESDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, FOR GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO
30 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES. THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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