539
FXUS63 KMKX 151618
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DUSTING OF SNOW LIKELY THIS EVENING/NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF A WISCONSIN DELLS TO KENOSHA LINE. TOTALS OF A TRACE TO 1
INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN SAID AREA, WITH A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS RETURN SUNDAY,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED 1015 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A LIGHT
SNOW EVENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT (SEE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION). PRIOR FORECAST CALLED FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (~50%
PRECIP CHANCES), THIS MAY REMAIN THE SAME FOR FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN WI, BUT THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA (NORTH OF
A WISCONSIN DELLS TO KENOSHA LINE) IS LIKELY TO RECEIVE 60-90%
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEXT UPDATE AS ENSEMBLE
PROBS FOR LIGHT SNOW RISE IN THIS AREA.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOKING LIKE A DUSTING UP TO 1
INCH, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI, LESS FURTHER SOUTH. DRY WEATHER STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM
NW TO SE AFTER 6 PM. BOTH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DGZ
SATURATION ARE BEST BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 1 AM TONIGHT,
HENCE THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
THIS WINDOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 1
AM TONIGHT AND 7 AM THURSDAY, BUT ARE LIKELY TO FEATURE LOWER
AREAL COVERAGE (MAYBE SHORTER DURATION / MORE ISOLATED).
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO. DESPITE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES, THE LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD KEEP
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 TO -15.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY, LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST, WISCONSIN WILL SEE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL PROVIDE
THE MOST AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK LARGER
SCALE LIFT AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME FORCING, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH. MANY AREAS CAN EXPECT A
DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH. AGAIN WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
TOTALS NEAR AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE STATE AS WELL AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO
FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A PERIOD OF STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE STATE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CRACK 40 FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
UNLIKE THE TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE IN OUR CHANCES FOR SEEING
RAIN ARE MUCH LOWER. DESPITE THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE DOES NOT SEEM
TO INCREASE MUCH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MANY AREAS WILL STAY DRY. GUIDANCE HAS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WITH MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. THERE ARE A FEW
OUTLIERS THAT TRY TO BRING IN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN A CHANCE FOR RAIN BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
AROUND 20% ORE LESS. REGARDLESS OF IF WE GET RAIN OR NOT, WHAT
LITTLE SNOW WE DO HAVE ON THE GROUND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
IS EXPECTED TO MELT.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUSLY THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
EXITING LOW BRINGING ANOTHER COLDER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR FOR
WINTER 2024/2025. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL
SEE A STEADY DECLINE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH MONDAY'S HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO PULL ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
OVERNIGHT AND DAILY WIND CHILLS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TONIGHT WITH VALUES RANGING FROM -10 TO -25. MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEAK AT
THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES
MOVE IN.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1015 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS GIVE WAY TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD DECKS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER BRINGING IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 3-6
KFT AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER (1500-2500 FT) CLOUDS
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. TERMINALS NORTH OF A WISCONSIN DELLS (KDLL) TO
KENOSHA (KENW) LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL,
WITH A TRACE TO UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF SAID LINE WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES AND CAN EXPECT
LOWER TOTALS NEAR A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING
AND 1 AM TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL FLURRIES / DUSTY ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LIKELY FROM
DAYBREAK THURSDAY ONWARDS, WITH LINGERING SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 3000-5000 FT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.6 INCHES IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MEANWHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES IN NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. AN OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH
BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE HUDSON BAY MOVES
EAST INTO QUEBEC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR FROM 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 3 PM CST THURSDAY.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.1 INCHES WILL MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS LOW APPROACHES LIGHT NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD GALE
FORCE GUSTS CONTINUES TO INCREASE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
PERIOD, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM THURSDAY.
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