713
FXUS63 KMKX 161037
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
437 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TODAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ON FRIDAY.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS RETURN SUNDAY,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
- A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 436 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTACT AND KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A WARM AIRMASS, LEADING TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S TODAY. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S. TONIGHT,
WINDS DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW 20S, WITH A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE. CLOUDS LIFT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 35 MPH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE KETTLE MORAINE, THE WARMEST SPOTS MAY BE ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 436 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION
ENDS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, AND WITH THE END OF PRECIPITATION
COMES THE NEXT SWATH OF COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
20S TO UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST
TEMPERATURES COMBINING TO GENERATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESPITE FROM THE COLD MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EJECTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 436 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, LOOKING TO LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR SATURATION WE MAY
SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF 1500-2500 FT CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IF THESE CEILINGS DEVELOP, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
AND SCATTER ONCE AGAIN INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY. GUSTS OF
15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
QUICKLY TO GUST AROUND 25 KT ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 436 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY INTO LATE
THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVE
CONDITIONS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES FROM
ALBERTA TO WESTERN ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PRODUCING GALES UP TO 40 KT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING IN FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH
TUESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GALES AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM
THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM
FRIDAY.
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