919
FXUS63 KMKX 161503 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-30S TODAY AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ON FRIDAY.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS RETURN SUNDAY,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED.
- A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 903 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF CLEARING THIS MORNING, BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK IN BY THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. MILDER HIGHS INTO THE 30S ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
TEMPS ALREADY CRACKING 30 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS THIS MORNING.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 436 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTACT AND KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A WARM AIRMASS, LEADING TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S TODAY. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S. TONIGHT,
WINDS DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW 20S, WITH A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE. CLOUDS LIFT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 35 MPH, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE KETTLE MORAINE, THE WARMEST SPOTS MAY BE ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 436 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION
ENDS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, AND WITH THE END OF PRECIPITATION
COMES THE NEXT SWATH OF COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
20S TO UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST
TEMPERATURES COMBINING TO GENERATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESPITE FROM THE COLD MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EJECTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 903 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH
POCKETS OF CLEARING EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE BKN TO OVC
AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LATEST HREF SUGGESTING BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HREF PROBS FOR CEILINGS LESS
THAN 3 KFT DECREASE THIS EVENING, SO A PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE TODAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. A PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY DRY SYSTEM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,
THOUGH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A ROUND OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 436 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL OVER THE HUDSON BAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY INTO LATE
THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVE
CONDITIONS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT PROGRESSES FROM
ALBERTA TO WESTERN ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PRODUCING GALES UP TO 40 KT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BRING IN FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND MAY PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH
TUESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GALES AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM
THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM
FRIDAY.
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