786
FXUS63 KMKX 162051
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
251 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS RETURN SUNDAY,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DECREASE IN LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
EASING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUICKLY. KEPT THE FORECAST
AWAY FROM THE COLDER MODELS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. INCREASING TEMPS
ALOFT WILL LIKELY ALSO KEEP LOWS FROM TANKING MUCH.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING EVEN MILDER TEMPS INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOW 40S MOST
PLACES, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW EVENING. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASED SATURATION
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT THERE IS A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL OF A LOT OF DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT. WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VERY
LOW HREF PROBS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, MAYBE RISING A COUPLE DEGREES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO CRASH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, HANGING
AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHEN WIND CHILLS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE -15 TO -20 DURING THE DAY, AND WILL DROP
TO -20 TO -30 AT NIGHT. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS COLDEST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER ON WEDNESDAY, APPROACHING
NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MODELS HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW BY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THURSDAY FOR NOW GIVEN A LOW LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 251 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
HREF PROBS FOR CEILINGS LESS THAN 3 KFT DECREASE THIS EVENING,
SO A PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE TODAY INTO
AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. A PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY DRY SYSTEM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,
THOUGH FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. A ROUND OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 251 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRIEFLY EASE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
LIKELY DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE. BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING SPRAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 AM FRIDAY
TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM
THURSDAY.
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