235  
FXUS63 KMKX 171020  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
420 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
 
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORT THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- LIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING,  
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS EXPECTED.  
 
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS  
EVENING, ALLOWING A FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE  
REGION.  
 
- ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM  
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL  
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT POINTS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE SUNDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.  
 
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:  
 
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: 330 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 984 MB  
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO-MANITOBA BORDER. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT  
EXTENDS SOUTH OF SAID SURFACE LOW, ROUGHLY TRACKING FROM THE ND-MN  
BORDER SOUTH TOWARD SIOUX CITY, IA AND OMAHA, NE. AN ARCTIC COLD  
FRONT BRANCHES OUT & WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITH CURRENT ANALYSIS  
PLACING THE BOUNDARY TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE US-CANADIAN  
BORDER. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS  
EAST TODAY, CONCURRENTLY PULLING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE  
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLY MILDER AIR MASS TO  
ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS  
INTO NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING, CONCURRENTLY DRAGGING ITS  
ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL  
TURN SHARPLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ALONG & BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,  
ALLOWING A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE  
INTO SATURDAY, WHEN MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN  
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON: MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED WARM FRONT.  
EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REACH 40 DEGREES, WITH  
READINGS IN THE MID-40S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN  
WISCONSIN.  
 
THIS EVENING & TONIGHT: ABRUPT CHANGES ARRIVE AS THE ARCTIC COLD  
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT  
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE BOUNDARY'S PASSAGE, WITH NO  
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE  
TEENS AND WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE.  
 
SATURDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT POST-  
FRONTAL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF  
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR  
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
SYNOPSIS: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH SUNDAY,  
ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE FUNNELING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES & SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER  
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME PERIOD,  
ALLOWING AN AREA OF 1048+ MB HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE ROCKY  
MOUNTAINS. SAID AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO FRIGID NORTHWEST  
SURFACE FLOW REGIONALLY, HELPING TO REINFORCE THE ESTABLISHED ARCTIC  
AIR MASS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN CONTINUED COLD  
ADVECTION & ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND  
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -10 IS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE FROM EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY  
DURING PORTIONS OF THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH TRENDS CONTINUING TO BE  
MONITORED OVER THE COMING FORECASTS. BE SURE TO DRESS WARM WHEN  
HEADING OUTDOORS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES  
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK  
& THE CONCLUSION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON: ANTICIPATE A FOOTPRINT OF  
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20 AND -25 TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION  
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. READINGS WILL BE CHILLIEST DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIODS, AND MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. GIVEN SAID READINGS, ANTICIPATE THAT COLD WEATHER  
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY DURING PORTIONS OF THIS TIME PERIOD.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING: EXPECT THAT WIND CHILLS WILL  
BE AT THEIR COLDEST DURING THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD. WITH  
REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE ROCKIES, GUIDANCE  
POINTS TOWARD WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -30 RANGE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR READINGS AT OR BELOW -30  
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE  
THUS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR EXTREME COLD WARNINGS OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS OVER THE COMING  
FORECASTS.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD AT ALL  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS  
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
GIVEN THE GUSTY CONDITIONS, LLWS IS POSSIBLE NEAR FL020, WITH THE  
POTENTIAL BEING ACCOUNTED FOR AT ALL FIELDS IN THE 06 AND 09Z  
UPDATES. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN  
THICKENING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIG VALUES. THE CURRENT FORECAST  
MAINTAINS PREVAILING VFR CATEGORIES AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH TRENDS  
WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KJVL AND KMSN  
APPROACHING 06Z. THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY CROSS THE REGION THIS  
EVENING, RESULTING IN A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. A FEW FLURRIES  
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO  
LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY PREVAILING OR PROB30 MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025  
 
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE AN AREA OF 984 MB LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. SAID AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH AND ULTIMATELY CROSS NORTHERN LAKE  
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCREASING  
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SAID GUSTS WILL REACH  
AND EXCEED GALE THRESHOLDS, WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE  
ENTIRETY OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 8 AM AND 6 PM CST TODAY.  
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN  
QUEBEC TONIGHT, CONCURRENTLY DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS  
LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND  
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE  
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE  
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED  
WAVE HEIGHTS AND A FRIGID POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS TO SUPPORT  
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANY  
FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD IS  
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT  
HEADLINES, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING  
FORECASTS.  
 
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT  
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ULTIMATELY BEING REINFORCED BY A  
SECOND, STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 1048 MB MONDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS THROUGH THE NORTH-  
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW  
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE  
20-25 KT RANGE, AN ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR MASS, AND ELEVATED WAVE  
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY, WITH SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COMING FORECASTS, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY  
WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE  
MICHIGAN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
IN NEARSHORE ZONES, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WHEN THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE  
REGION. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE BOUNDARY'S PASSAGE.  
MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT OCCURRING IN THE WAKE  
OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GUSTY CONDITIONS IN  
ALL NEARSHORE ZONES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN FORECAST WIND  
GUSTS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT BETWEEN 5 AM THIS  
MORNING AND 5 PM SATURDAY. NORTHWEST GUSTS SHOULD TAPER BELOW SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-  
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-  
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 AM FRIDAY  
TO 6 PM FRIDAY.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 5 PM  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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