808
FXUS63 KMKX 171514 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
914 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUPPORT THE MILD TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
- LIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING,
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING A FRIGID AIR MASS TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE
REGION.
- ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT POINTS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 914 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY GIVEN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED WIND
GUSTS A TOUCH TOO GIVEN THE MILDER TEMPS AND BETTER MIXING
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: 330 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 984 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO-MANITOBA BORDER. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH OF SAID SURFACE LOW, ROUGHLY TRACKING FROM THE ND-MN
BORDER SOUTH TOWARD SIOUX CITY, IA AND OMAHA, NE. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BRANCHES OUT & WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITH CURRENT ANALYSIS
PLACING THE BOUNDARY TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE US-CANADIAN
BORDER. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EAST TODAY, CONCURRENTLY PULLING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALLOWING FOR A NOTICEABLY MILDER AIR MASS TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS
INTO NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING, CONCURRENTLY DRAGGING ITS
ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
TURN SHARPLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ALONG & BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,
ALLOWING A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY, WHEN MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES.
THIS AFTERNOON: MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REACH 40 DEGREES, WITH
READINGS IN THE MID-40S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN.
THIS EVENING & TONIGHT: ABRUPT CHANGES ARRIVE AS THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE BOUNDARY'S PASSAGE, WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
TEENS AND WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE.
SATURDAY: BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT POST-
FRONTAL ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SYNOPSIS: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE FUNNELING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES & SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME PERIOD,
ALLOWING AN AREA OF 1048+ MB HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. SAID AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO FRIGID NORTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW REGIONALLY, HELPING TO REINFORCE THE ESTABLISHED ARCTIC
AIR MASS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION & ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW -10 IS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE FROM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY
DURING PORTIONS OF THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH TRENDS CONTINUING TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE COMING FORECASTS. BE SURE TO DRESS WARM WHEN
HEADING OUTDOORS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK
& THE CONCLUSION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON: ANTICIPATE A FOOTPRINT OF
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20 AND -25 TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. READINGS WILL BE CHILLIEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS, AND MOST WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN SAID READINGS, ANTICIPATE THAT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY DURING PORTIONS OF THIS TIME PERIOD.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING: EXPECT THAT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE AT THEIR COLDEST DURING THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD. WITH
REINFORCING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE ROCKIES, GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWARD WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -30 RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR READINGS AT OR BELOW -30
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
THUS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR EXTREME COLD WARNINGS OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS OVER THE COMING
FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 914 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING, BUT
KEPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GOING IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN WINDS TO 50 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP MIX DOWN
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS, WITH GUSTS REACHING OR TOPPING 30
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINGING A SHIFT
IN THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WITH THE FRONT, BUT MOST PLACES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT INTO AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY, WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY. THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE AN AREA OF 984 MB LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. SAID AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH AND ULTIMATELY CROSS NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SAID GUSTS WILL REACH
AND EXCEED GALE THRESHOLDS, WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 8 AM AND 6 PM CST TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT, CONCURRENTLY DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED
WAVE HEIGHTS AND A FRIGID POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS TO SUPPORT
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANY
FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME PERIOD IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING
FORECASTS.
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ULTIMATELY BEING REINFORCED BY A
SECOND, STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 1048 MB MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS THROUGH THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE, AN ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR MASS, AND ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COMING FORECASTS, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN NEARSHORE ZONES, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WHEN THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE BOUNDARY'S PASSAGE.
MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT OCCURRING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
ALL NEARSHORE ZONES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN FORECAST WIND
GUSTS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT BETWEEN 5 AM THIS
MORNING AND 5 PM SATURDAY. NORTHWEST GUSTS SHOULD TAPER BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY SATURDAY EVENING.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM
FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 5 PM
SATURDAY.
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