066
FXUS63 KMKX 181551 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
951 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY, BRINGING
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVING ARCTIC AIR.
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 951 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, USHERING THE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS AND SEE IF
MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE CLOSE
IN THESE AREAS, AS WIND CHILLS MAY TOUCH 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A FEW
HOURS SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR
NOW.
AT LEAST A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING FOR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING,
DEPENDING ON IF THE 30 BELOW ZERO THRESHOLD CAN BE REACHED. NOT
SURE IF THESE HEADLINES WILL BE DECIDED UPON LATER TODAY OR
HAVE LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE.
MOST OF THE LINGERING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OR
DISSIPATE, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 442 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION ARE
ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH
YESTERDAY'S ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SAID
WINDS WILL ALLOW AN ARCTIC AIR MASS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
SUPPORTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS AT AND BELOW -10. THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY,
ULTIMATELY BEING REINFORCED BY AN EVEN CHILLIER PULL OF ARCTIC AIR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
INTO MONDAY EVENING IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES COVERING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BECOMING
NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING THE ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR MASS TO
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN. DRESS WARM IF HEADING OUTDOORS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
REST OF OVERNIGHT: GIVEN OBS AND RADAR TRENDS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF MADISON THROUGH SUNRISE. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE NON-
IMPACTFUL, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL SHUTTING OFF ANY
FLURRY POTENTIAL BY SUNRISE.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE CORE OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AMID CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL CAA.
THE ARRIVAL OF SAID AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW
ZERO OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT, AND AREAWIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ARE EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FRIGID AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PERSISTENT, BREEZY NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW, WHICH WILL
HOLD WIND CHILLS IN THE -10S AND -20S THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
TIME PERIOD. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE AT THEIR COLDEST---AND WELL
INTO THE RANGE OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA---DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIODS, WITH BRIEF "RISES" ABOVE ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. RATHER
THAN FOLLOWING THE PERIODS OF -20 TO -29 WIND CHILLS WITH
INDIVIDUAL HEADLINES, ULTIMATELY ELECTED TO ISSUE A LONG-FUSED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM AS EARLY AS 3 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 9 PM
MONDAY, WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. DID
SEPARATE THE ADVISORY INTO TWO DIFFERENT SEGMENTS, GIVEN THAT SUB
-20 WIND CHILLS AREN'T FORECAST TO REACH FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THUS RUNS
BETWEEN 3 AM SUNDAY AND 9 PM MONDAY OUTSIDE OF MILWAUKEE, RACINE,
AND KENOSHA COUNTIES, AND BETWEEN 9 PM SUNDAY AND 9 PM MONDAY IN
MILWAUKEE, RACINE, AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, RESULTING IN THE CHILLIEST LOWS OF THE
PERIOD ON TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 AND US-18, WITH READINGS
APPROACHING -10 FURTHER SOUTH. THE EVEN CHILLIER AIR MASS WILL
COMBINE WITH STILL BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SO SUPPORT THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS OF THE UPCOMING ARCTIC OUTBREAK. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
WILL THUS CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH EXTREME COLD WARNING
LEVEL WIND CHILLS IN THE -30 TO -35 RANGE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. SHOULD TRENDS SUPPORTING
SUCH WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO HOLD, A MIXTURE OF EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD. WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COMING FORECASTS, WITH HEADLINE DECISIONS BEING MADE AS THIS PORTION
OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: ONE MORE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
OF -10 TO -20 WIND CHILLS IS ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY COLDER READINGS
ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED OVER THE
COMING FORECAST CYCLES.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 442 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
SYNOPSIS: TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL THANKS
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE,
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 951 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WIND WILL BRING
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA.
MOST OF THE LINGERING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OR
DISSIPATE, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
DAY. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 951 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER TODAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC, AND HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.8 INCHES MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED,
WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND FRIGID
ARCTIC AIR, WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK, AS A SECOND, STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.9
INCHES PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING POSSIBLE IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO WINTHROP
HARBOR THROUGH 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING, THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS INTO SUNDAY. THUS, WILL MONITOR
WIND AND WAVE TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE COMING FORECASTS, MAKING
ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENSIONS IF NECESSARY.
QUIGLEY/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070...3 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...9 PM SUNDAY TO
9 PM MONDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON SUNDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 5 PM
SATURDAY.
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