918
FXUS63 KMKX 190322
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT,
BRINGING FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY LATER NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 907 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
TO AROUND -16 TO -28 SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON.
MARQUARDT
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 241 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING THE BITTER COLD AIR
INTO THE AREA. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALL BUT MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES, WHERE WIND CHILLS THERE WILL REMAIN IN THE 14 BELOW
TO 18 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THEN INCLUDES
THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
OF 15 TO 28 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS STILL LOOK TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE WIND CHILLS OF 24 BELOW TO 32 BELOW ZERO
ARE POSSIBLE, COLDEST IN THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
LOWS THAT NIGHT SHOULD REACH THE 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS WELL. THESE VALUES MAY ACTUALLY BE A
LITTLE MILD, AS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROBABILITIES
OF TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10 BELOW ZERO, AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF MODELS. THE SPREAD IN
MODEL TEMPERATURES THAT NIGHT IS QUITE SMALL, SO MAYBE A SMALL
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD WITH LOWS WILL WORK BETTER. LACK OF SNOW
COVER LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWS.
WHATEVER THE LOWS END UP BEING, ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD, AS
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS FROM WIND CHILLS WILL BE HERE.
WIND CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 28 BELOW ZERO RANGE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 3
TO 8 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER DURING THIS
TIME, BUT THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL STILL YIELD BITTER
COLD WIND CHILLS. THUS, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR
THIS PERIOD AS WELL IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE
THIS EXTENDED COLD PERIOD IN GRAPHICS.
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY SHOULD FINALLY BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND WIND CHILLS ABOVE THE ZERO DEGREE
MARK.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 241 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO, WHICH WILL
BE QUITE A BIT MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW FRIGID NIGHTS. FOR
A COMPARISON, OUR 925 MB TEMPS (LOWEST LEVEL ABOVE THE SURFACE)
WILL BE AROUND -30 DEGREES CELSIUS TUESDAY MORNING, -17 DEGREES
CELSIUS WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND -5 DEGREES CELSIUS THURSDAY
MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST
THU NT IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK COLD FRONT, AND THU NT LOWS WILL
BE AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO.
THE ACTIVE AND SLIGHTLY MILDER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES SEEM FOCUSED TOWARD
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS ALSO MEANS BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 907 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF MADISON MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS AROUND 3KFT LATER TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARQUARDT
MARINE
ISSUED 241 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES MOVES INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC, AND HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.8 INCHES MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND FRIGID
ARCTIC AIR, WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK, AS A SECOND, STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.9
INCHES PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AT TIMES.
IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR THROUGH 5 PM CST.
GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING, THOUGH THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE INCREASING
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THUS, WILL MONITOR WIND AND WAVE
TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE COMING FORECASTS, AND ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070...3 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM MONDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...9 PM SUNDAY TO
9 PM MONDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON SUNDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page