831
FXUS63 KMKX 191050
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
450 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 451 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO
CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER ALASKA, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST-
CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY, ALLOWING AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO PIVOT INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SAID HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW AN EVEN COLDER BATCH
OF ARCTIC AIR TO FUNNEL INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS OF THE
ONGOING ARCTIC OUTBREAK. FRIGID AIR TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH READINGS WON'T BE AS COLD AS THOSE
OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BE SURE TO DRESS WARMLY
IF HEADING OUTDOORS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY & TONIGHT: EXPECT A FRIGID START TO THE DAY, WITH ALL
LOCATIONS WAKING UP TO WIND CHILLS NEAR/BELOW -10 AND AIR TEMPS
NEAR/BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST OF AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL BE OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, WHERE A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT. DO EXPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL RISE
ABOVE TECHNICAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH WIND CHILLS QUICKLY TUMBLING BACK
TO/BELOW -20 AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE AT THIS POINT
THAT WIDESPREAD -20 OR COLDER WIND CHILLS WILL OVERSPREAD FAR
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES,
HAVE THUS BUMPED THE START TIME OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
MILWAUKEE, RACINE, AND KENOSHA COS UP TO 6 PM CST IN THE OVERNIGHT
UPDATE.
MONDAY: TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL PLAY OUT IN LARGELY SIMILAR
FASHION TO TODAY, WITH WIND CHILLS BRIEFLY RISING ABOVE -
20/TECHNICAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SAID WIND CHILL RISES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH READINGS QUICKLY PLUMMETING FOLLOWING
SUNSET. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE, WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED IN ANY ACTIVITY.
MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY MORNING: AN RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, SUPPORTING THE COLDEST AIR
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF THE ONGOING ARCTIC OUTBREAK. EXPECT
AIR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO OR BELOW -10 BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. THE
BITTERLY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE AREAWIDE, WITH EVEN COLDER
READINGS IN THE -30 TO -35 RANGE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GIVEN HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN -20 TO -30 WIND
CHILLS AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, ELECTED TO EXTEND THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL 12 PM CST
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS AT/BELOW -30 IN CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, DID CONSIDER ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH, BUT ULTIMATELY ELECTED TO HOLD AT AN ADVISORY IN THESE
LOCATIONS GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF
WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL MONITOR TRENDS,
WITH POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO EXTREME COLD WARNINGS POSSIBLE IN LATER
FORECASTS SHOULD FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH THEY WON'T
BE NEARLY AS COLD AS READINGS OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD -10 TO -20 VALUES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 451 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS: ONE FINAL FRIGID MORNING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START, AIR TEMPS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SAID SURFACE LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER DISTURBANCE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LIFT
AFFILIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING LIGHT
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE (~15-20%) PRECIP PROBS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EARLY SIGNALS POINT TOWARD ACCUMULATIONS BEING LIGHT (< 1") IN THIS
POTENTIAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 451 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL FIELDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SAID
CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS UNDER OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF FEW TO SCT CLOUDS BASED
GENERALLY BETWEEN FL100 AND FL250. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TAPERING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 451 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS TODAY AS
996 MB LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FAR NORTHERN
QUEBEC & THE NORTHEASTERN HUDSON BAY. READINGS BETWEEN 20-25 KT ARE
FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF SAID HIGH
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND FRIGID
AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NOON
CST TODAY THROUGH 3 PM CST TUESDAY GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA, WITH TRENDS BEING
MONITORED OVER COMING FORECASTS FOR ANY POTENTIAL EXTENSIONS.
1000 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PROMOTING A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS EXPECTED. SAID GUSTS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ANY SUCH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER RELATIVE TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK.
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY IN NEARSHORE ZONES. SAID VALUES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY ANY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH HEADLINES BEING ISSUED SHOULD FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASE.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM SUNDAY TO
NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...NOON SUNDAY TO 3 PM TUESDAY.
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