351
FXUS63 KMKX 192042
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
242 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
- EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN LATER FORECASTS.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY. BITTER COLD AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LOWS OF 4 BELOW TO 9 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOWS TONIGHT, AS SOME CLOUDS MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE
DROPS. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 BELOW TO 28 BELOW ZERO
RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY WHERE THEY
RISE ABOVE 20 BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. STILL, THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF LOWS IN THE 8 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE
OVERNIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS OF 25 BELOW TO PERHAPS 33 BELOW
ZERO, COLDEST IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SOME CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER
AND WIND CHILLS FROM DROPPING TO 30 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER.
FOR NOW, WILL LEAVE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT, BUT
LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA IN
LATER FORECASTS AS WELL, WITH BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN PLACE WITH WIND CHILLS PERHAPS REACHING NEAR OR BELOW 20
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE, WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION THAT BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH, THAT MAY LIMIT WIND CHILL DROPS.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE ZONAL 500 MB FLOW DEVELOPING. KEPT NBM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD, WHICH SHOW THIS MODERATING TREND.
ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME FOCUSED
WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP MOIST AIR COLUMN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SLOWLY EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE 500 MB SHORTWAVES THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH OR SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SO SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE. ALL IN ALL, MAY GET LIGHT SNOW
WITH PERHAPS A HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FEET
AGL UNTIL SUNSET TOWARD MADISON AND JANESVILLE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, AND PERHAPS MORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 31.0 INCHES WILL SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
THE BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS AND FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
3 PM CST TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNED AREA, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED OVER COMING FORECASTS
FOR ANY POTENTIAL EXTENSIONS.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
PROMOTING A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ANY FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER RELATIVE TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WINDS WILL BE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THIS
WEEK. MAY NEED THIS HEADLINE FOR LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM SUNDAY TO
NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
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