622
FXUS63 KMKX 200412
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS WIND CHILLS DIP CLOSER TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER BACK INTO THE 20S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1010 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE EXPECT
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS TO PERSIST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WI WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO
AROUND 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONTINUE
TO SEE TRENDS OF WIND CHILLS AROUND 35 DEGREE BELOW ZERO FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUS MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING, HOWEVER, WILL LET
THE REST OF THE 00Z MODELS COME IN BEFORE MAKING THAT
DETERMINATION. OTHERWISE, ADDED MENTIONS OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AS CLOUDS WORK THEIR WAY IN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TREK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY. BITTER COLD AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LOWS OF 4 BELOW TO 9 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOWS TONIGHT, AS SOME CLOUDS MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE
DROPS. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 BELOW TO 28 BELOW ZERO
RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY WHERE THEY
RISE ABOVE 20 BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHERE
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. STILL, THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF LOWS IN THE 8 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE
OVERNIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS OF 25 BELOW TO PERHAPS 33 BELOW
ZERO, COLDEST IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SOME CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER
AND WIND CHILLS FROM DROPPING TO 30 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER.
FOR NOW, WILL LEAVE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT, BUT
LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA IN
LATER FORECASTS AS WELL, WITH BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN PLACE WITH WIND CHILLS PERHAPS REACHING NEAR OR BELOW 20
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE, WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION THAT BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH, THAT MAY LIMIT WIND CHILL DROPS.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 242 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH A MORE ZONAL 500 MB FLOW DEVELOPING. KEPT NBM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD, WHICH SHOW THIS MODERATING TREND.
ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME FOCUSED
WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP MOIST AIR COLUMN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SLOWLY EXITING THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A
COUPLE 500 MB SHORTWAVES THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH OR SOUTH OF THE
AREA, SO SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE. ALL IN ALL, MAY GET LIGHT SNOW
WITH PERHAPS A HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1010 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THESE BITTER COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY, WILL SEE SOME HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN WI. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SPUR A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WITH THESE CLOUDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, BRISK WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND LOOK TO PICK UP WITH
GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS MONDAY DURING THE DAY.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 1010 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 31.0 INCHES WILL SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE
HIGH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
THE BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS AND FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH 3 PM CST TUESDAY. ALSO ADDED A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN WATERS FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 6
AM CST MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COULD CONTINUE LONGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA, WITH
TRENDS BEING MONITORED OVER COMING FORECASTS FOR ANY POTENTIAL
EXTENSIONS.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PROMOTING
A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ANY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHTER RELATIVE TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WOOD/WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM TUESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565...6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
MONDAY TO 3 AM TUESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page