869
FXUS63 KMKX 201021
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
421 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LATER
SHIFTS CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW REMAINS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (< 1") AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 422 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE US-
CANADIAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY, SETTLING INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. RESPONDING TO THE
PROGRESSING HIGH, SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ALLOWING A RENEWED PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF SAID AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT THE MOST FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
OF THE ONGOING ARCTIC OUTBREAK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR IN THE OVERNIGHT UPDATE, COVERING ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN. BE SURE TO DRESS WARMLY AND IN MULTIPLE LAYERS IF NEEDING
TO HEAD OUTDOORS AT ANY POINT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
TODAY: FRIGID WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND -20 WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AREAWIDE. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES. EXPECT SOME
FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE REGION, WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE COLDEST AND MOST DANGEROUS
AIR TEMPS & WIND CHILLS OF THE ONGOING ARCTIC OUTBREAK ARRIVE INTO
THE REGION NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF -30
TO -35 WIND CHILLS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MID-
LATE MORNING TUESDAY, WHICH HAS MOTIVATED THE ISSUANCE OF EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST UPDATE.
ANTICIPATE THAT -30/WARNING-LEVEL WIND CHILLS WILL ENCROACH UPON
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD NEAR DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A LONG DURATION OF SUCH READINGS
REMAINS LOW. THUS ELECTED TO KEEP WAUKESHA, WALWORTH, MILWAUKEE,
RACINE, AND KENOSHA COUNTIES OUT OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE GIVEN THIS LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH TODAY. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN
PROLONGED -30 & LOWER WIND CHILLS INCREASE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN, EXTREME COLD WARNING EXPANSIONS MAY BE NEEDED. WARNING-
LEVEL WIND CHILLS WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY CONTRACT NORTH & EAST BY
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS THUS RUN BETWEEN 12 AM -
9 AM TUESDAY IN SAUK COUNTY & ALL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF US-18 AND
I-94, AND BETWEEN 12 AM - 12 PM TUESDAY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. IT'S
LIKELY THAT WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME FOLLOWING EXTREME COLD
WARNING EXPIRATIONS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR SIMPLICITY OF MESSAGING,
WILL DEFER ANY "FOLLOW-UP" COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES TO LATER SHIFTS
SUCH THAT THE FOCUS CAN REMAIN ON THE HIGHEST-IMPACT & MOST
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 422 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
BREEZY SWLY WINDS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO WED AM WITH TEMPS EVEN WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE. ALOFT, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM
ADVECTION AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT SNOW.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR WED NT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED THU AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THEN EWD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LGT SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF SRN WI WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. THE JET STREAM
WILL THEN BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 422 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TERMINALS. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY, WILL SEE SOME HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WORK THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN WI. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SPUR A FEW LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WITH THESE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, BRISK WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND LOOK TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS MONDAY
DURING THE DAY.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 422 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 31.0 INCHES WILL SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNRISE, DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE HIGH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE BREEZY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND FRIGID
AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 6 PM CST TUESDAY. ALSO
ADDED A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN
WATERS FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY COULD CONTINUE LONGER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED OVER COMING
FORECASTS FOR ANY POTENTIAL EXTENSIONS.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PROMOTING A
SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ANY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHTER RELATIVE TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
IN NEARSHORE ZONES, GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-
25 KNOT RANGE FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 10 AM CST AND 3 AM CST TUESDAY
MORNING FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR. WIND GUSTS WILL
TAPER SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, PRIOR TO SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INCREASING
ONCE MORE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060...MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069...MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM
MONDAY TO 3 AM TUESDAY.
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