559
FXUS63 KMKX 201557 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
957 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LATER SHIFTS CLOSELY
MONITORING TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW REMAINS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (< 1") AT
THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 957 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
THERE IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, AS THE GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING
AROUND THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. ADDING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY.
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE ADDING THE REST OF THE
SOUTHEAST FIVE COUNTIES INTO THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE WAUKESHA AND
WALWORTH COUNTIES SHOULD MEET THE 30 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL
THRESHOLDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THIS PERIOD, SO THEY WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY TO BE ADDED IN.
MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES ALSO SEEM TO REACH THIS
THRESHOLD, BUT FOR A SHORTER TIME PERIOD OF 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONSIDER ADDING THESE
COUNTIES AS WELL, PERHAPS FOR A SHORTER TIME PERIOD. WILL AWAIT
THE FULL 12Z SUITE OF MODELS BEFORE MAKING A CALL ON ANY COLD
WEATHER HEADLINE CHANGES.
ALSO WILL EVENTUALLY NEED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE AREA,
AFTER THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES EXPIRE BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THEY MAY GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THE
EVENING, BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS UPWARD BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. A DECISION HERE MAY NOT
BE NEEDED UNTIL LATER FORECASTS.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 422 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG
THE US- CANADIAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY,
SETTLING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING.
RESPONDING TO THE PROGRESSING HIGH, SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALLOWING A RENEWED PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE ARRIVAL OF SAID AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT THE MOST FRIGID AIR
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF THE ONGOING ARCTIC OUTBREAK
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE, COVERING ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. BE
SURE TO DRESS WARMLY AND IN MULTIPLE LAYERS IF NEEDING TO HEAD
OUTDOORS AT ANY POINT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW LIGHT
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
TODAY: FRIGID WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND -20 WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AREAWIDE. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
COUNTIES. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION, WITH NO IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON: THE COLDEST AND MOST
DANGEROUS AIR TEMPS & WIND CHILLS OF THE ONGOING ARCTIC OUTBREAK
ARRIVE INTO THE REGION NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF -30 TO -35 WIND CHILLS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MID- LATE MORNING TUESDAY, WHICH
HAS MOTIVATED THE ISSUANCE OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST UPDATE. ANTICIPATE THAT
-30/WARNING-LEVEL WIND CHILLS WILL ENCROACH UPON SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD NEAR DAYBREAK TUESDAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN A LONG DURATION OF SUCH READINGS REMAINS LOW. THUS
ELECTED TO KEEP WAUKESHA, WALWORTH, MILWAUKEE, RACINE, AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES OUT OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN THE OVERNIGHT
UPDATE GIVEN THIS LOWER CONFIDENCE. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH TODAY. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN
PROLONGED -30 & LOWER WIND CHILLS INCREASE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN, EXTREME COLD WARNING EXPANSIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
WARNING- LEVEL WIND CHILLS WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY CONTRACT NORTH
& EAST BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS THUS RUN
BETWEEN 12 AM - 9 AM TUESDAY IN SAUK COUNTY & ALL COUNTIES
ALONG/SOUTH OF US-18 AND I-94, AND BETWEEN 12 AM - 12 PM TUESDAY
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. IT'S LIKELY THAT WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER
NEAR OR JUST BELOW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME FOLLOWING EXTREME COLD WARNING EXPIRATIONS
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR SIMPLICITY OF MESSAGING, WILL DEFER ANY
"FOLLOW-UP" COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES TO LATER SHIFTS SUCH THAT
THE FOCUS CAN REMAIN ON THE HIGHEST-IMPACT & MOST DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 422 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
BREEZY SWLY WINDS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED AM WITH TEMPS EVEN WARMING BEFORE SUNRISE.
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
WITH ANOTHER FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LGT SNOW. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR WED NT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED THU AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
THEN EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY LGT SNOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF SRN WI WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES. THE JET STREAM WILL THEN BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 957 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
THERE IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
BAND OF LOW CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET AGL SHIFTING EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 2 TO 4 MILES AT TIMES,
AS THE GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING AROUND THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MAY ADD IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO SOME AREA TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS ACTIVITY, AS THE WINDS
SHOULD BLOW IT AROUND.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT, THEN BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN
TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 957 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 31.0 INCHES WILL SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS TODAY, DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
THE BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS AND FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 6 PM CST TUESDAY. A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE OPEN WATERS UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY COULD CONTINUE
LONGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA, WITH TRENDS BEING
MONITORED OVER COMING FORECASTS FOR ANY POTENTIAL EXTENSIONS.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
PROMOTING A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ANY FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER RELATIVE TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CST THIS MORNING UNTIL 3 AM CST
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25
KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FOR GUSTY WINDS.
QUIGLEY/WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060...MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069...MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
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