062
FXUS63 KMKX 202109
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UP UNTIL THE START OF
THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW REMAINS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (< 1") AT
THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 309 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS, AS THE GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BLOW ANYTHING OFF OF SURFACES. THERE MAY
BE A VERY BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT TIMES, BUT NOTHING
IMPACTFUL.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF THE COLD SNAP ARRIVE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE ADDED WAUKESHA AND WALWORTH COUNTIES INTO THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING STARTING AT MIDNIGHT CST UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY, AND
MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES STARTING AT 3 AM CST
UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS SHOULD REACH THE 30 BELOW
ZERO THRESHOLD IN THESE AREAS DURING THESE PERIODS. THEY MAY
RISE ABOVE THIS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE NOON CST TUESDAY IN THESE
AREAS.
IN ADDITION, EXTENDED THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY, AS WIND CHILLS MAY
TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO RISE ABOVE 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THE START OF THE
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED AFTER
NOON CST TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY WIND CHILLS RISE.
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DETERMINE THIS TIMING.
THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST INTO TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED, SO MAY NEED TO ADD MORE CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT, AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO RANGE IN THE EVENING, BEFORE SLOWLY RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY HOLD STEADY OR RISE.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 309 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINING IN SOME
DEEP MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE IS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH THAT SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EITHER MOVING BY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. ALL IN ALL, THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS TIME, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH. NOT EXPECTING BIG IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE MORE TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, PER
ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 309 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS, WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
AT TIMES. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME, WITH THE
BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING ANYTHING OFF SURFACES. THESE
CLOUDS MAY RISE BUT LINGER OVERNIGHT, AND SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW LONG THEY WILL LINGER. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER
INTO TUESDAY, AS SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 309 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.9 INCHES WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY. IT WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK.
THE BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS AND FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 6 PM CST TUESDAY. A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE OPEN WATERS UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY COULD CONTINUE
LONGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA, WITH TRENDS BEING
MONITORED OVER COMING FORECASTS FOR ANY POTENTIAL EXTENSIONS.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
PROMOTING A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ANY
FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER RELATIVE TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING
THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOR
GUSTY WINDS.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070...MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...3 AM TUESDAY TO
NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
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