217
FXUS63 KMKX 210400
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST UNTIL
NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UP UNTIL THE START OF
THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
- BITTER COLD MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POTENTIALLY NEEDED AFTER THE EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS END.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (< 1") AT
THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1001 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ISOBARIC
PACKING SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THEREFORE, STILL EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO
NEGATIVE 30 DEGREES AND BELOW INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THESE CONCERNS. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES LOW. THEREFORE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
MAY BE ISSUED AFTER THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS END.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, BUT ARE TRANSIENT AND PATCHY ENOUGH TO POSE
A MINIMAL THREAT TO FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 309 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS, AS THE GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BLOW ANYTHING OFF OF SURFACES. THERE MAY
BE A VERY BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT TIMES, BUT NOTHING
IMPACTFUL.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS OF THE COLD SNAP ARRIVE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE ADDED WAUKESHA AND WALWORTH COUNTIES INTO THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING STARTING AT MIDNIGHT CST UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY, AND
MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES STARTING AT 3 AM CST
UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS SHOULD REACH THE 30 BELOW
ZERO THRESHOLD IN THESE AREAS DURING THESE PERIODS. THEY MAY
RISE ABOVE THIS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE NOON CST TUESDAY IN THESE
AREAS.
IN ADDITION, EXTENDED THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY, AS WIND CHILLS MAY
TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO RISE ABOVE 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THE START OF THE
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED AFTER
NOON CST TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY WIND CHILLS RISE.
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DETERMINE THIS TIMING.
THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST INTO TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED, SO MAY NEED TO ADD MORE CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT, AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO RANGE IN THE EVENING, BEFORE SLOWLY RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY HOLD STEADY OR RISE.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 309 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINING IN SOME
DEEP MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DRAGS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE IS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH THAT SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EITHER MOVING BY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. ALL IN ALL, THERE SHOULD
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THIS TIME, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH. NOT EXPECTING BIG IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE MORE TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, PER
ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1001 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
STEADY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
CLOSER TO 20 KT REDEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS SHIFT TO
BECOME WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS CONTINUING.
WINDS THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AND SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 20 KT
REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
A FEW TRANSIENT AREAS OF CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF BROKEN CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 309 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.9 INCHES WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY. IT WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK.
THE BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS AND FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 6 PM CST TUESDAY. A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE OPEN WATERS UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY COULD CONTINUE
LONGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA, WITH TRENDS BEING
MONITORED OVER COMING FORECASTS FOR ANY POTENTIAL EXTENSIONS.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
PROMOTING A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ANY
FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER RELATIVE TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING
THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOR
GUSTY WINDS.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...3 AM TUESDAY TO
NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page