385
FXUS63 KMKX 211633
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE IS RISING FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WED AM FOR ALL
OF SRN WI. THE SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER FAR SRN WI INCLUDING MKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1030 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
EXTREME COLD WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH NOON WITH NOW A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TO FOLLOW AND CARRY THOUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LARGELY BE DUE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND
NEGATIVE 20 DEGREES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT PERIOD
OF COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF SOME WAA.
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THOUGH
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT PROLONGED
AS FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A
WAA DRIVEN SNOW BUT THE WAA SEEMS TO ACTUALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO
KNOW THE TEMP PROFILE IN PART OUT OF THE DGZ. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
WAY THIS LOOKS IN ADDITION TO THE COLD COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS
OF A LARGE DGZ AND SOME BETTER SNOW RATES SO THAT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH THIS EVENT. EVEN STILL THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME, THUS LIMITING TIMEFRAME.
OVERALL 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH UP TO 3 IN ISOLATED AREAS.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 429 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THERE IS ONE VERY NARROW NW-SE BAND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW HANGING
ON FROM MADISON TO LAKE GENEVA BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW ENDING.
OTHERWISE THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS ARE ON TRACK
THIS MORNING WITH SOME -30F WIND CHILLS ALREADY OCCURRING.
THERE WILL BE THE USUAL SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN
WIND CHILLS DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN WIND SPEED.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL PASS TODAY WITH SSWLY WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY
RISE TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES TODAY BUT WITH GRADUAL WARMING FROM
LATE EVENING INTO WED AS BREEZY SWLY WINDS DEVELOP. THE WIND
CHILLS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BUT A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED WITH BEST CHANCES
TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI.
THE SWLY WINDS ARE INCREASING AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TNT, WHILE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WED-WED NT. THE STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN ENOUGH LAYER LIFT
AND MOISTENING FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SRN WI WED AM. MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY KEEP THE DURATION OF SNOW
FAIRLY SHORT NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE, BUT A CONFLUENT
FLOW AND HENCE FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
COULD KEEP THE LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
FAR SRN WI ENEWD INTO THE MKE METRO AREA. 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR
THERE WITH UNDER AN INCH TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS,
THESE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONTAL AND SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL THEN OCCUR WED NT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 429 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THU WITH THE SFC
RIDGE PASSAGE EXPECTED FOR FRI AM. THUS TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR
ZERO DEGREES BY SUNRISE FRI, BUT SLIGHTLY MILDER TOWARD FAR ERN
WI. SWLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN FRI AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S FORECAST.
THE JET STREAM WILL THEN BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1030 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WED
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI. CIGS WILL
FALL TO MVFR WITH VSBYS OF 1-3SM WITH THE SNOWFALL. OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH LATER TODAY
AND BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 429 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
TODAY, AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND FRIGID AIR
TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN
THIRD, AND INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES WILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW.
THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY REACH GALE FORCE FOR THE SOUTH HALF, HENCE A GALE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT NOT AS WINDY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SHEBOYGAN TO
WINTHROP HARBOR FROM 11 PM CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM CST ON
WEDNESDAY FOR BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM
TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
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