238
FXUS63 KMKX 212054 CCA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
248 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAS BEEN ISSUED
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- CONFIDENCE IS RISING FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WED AM FOR MOST
OF SOUTHERN WI. THE SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI
INCLUDING MKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT (1-2 IN.) BUT TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THOUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LARGELY BE DUE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND
NEGATIVE 20 DEGREES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT PERIOD
OF COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF SOME WAA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OUT WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EVENING THOUGH THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT IN A SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE AS FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK
THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WAA/FRONTAL DRIVEN SNOW.
THE WAA SEEMS TO ACTUALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO KNOCK THE TEMP
PROFILE, IN PART, OUT OF THE DGZ. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAY THIS
LOOKS IT COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF A LARGE DGZ AND SOME BETTER
SNOW RATES SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH THIS EVENT.
EVEN STILL THE DRY AIR INITIALLY MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME,
THE WINDS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOW RATIOS, AND THE QPF WILL BE
LOW WITH THIS EVENT. THE QPF WILL BE LOWER GIVEN THE COLD (THUS
INNATELY DRIER DESPITE A MOIST COLUMN) AND LACK OF OVERWHELMING
FORCING WITH VERY LIMITED PVA ALOFT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE GOOD SNOW RATIO BUT GIVEN THE
WIND IT MAY BE TOUGH TO SEE THE HIGHER END RATIOS. OVERALL 1-2
INCHES POSSIBLE WITH UP TO 3 IN ISOLATED AREAS.
SNOW WILL END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE FILLING BACK IN FROM THE WEST.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DOMINATING THE REGION WITH US CENTERED IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS CONTINUED COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD THOUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR.
INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL WARM UP A BIT AS THE HIGH SLIDES OUT
AND WE RETURN SOUTHERN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
WITH A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI
SATURDAY THOUGH IT LOOKS TOO DRY AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRIER HOWEVER GIVEN HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINGS GET A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RIDGING TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE
EAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING WED MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WI. CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM WITH THE
SNOWFALL. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TO
THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BRISK WEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS AND FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS UNTIL THURSDAY 0Z, WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD
WILL BE ADDED BY 3Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL 0Z THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. THE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE FOR THE SOUTH HALF, SLIGHTLY
MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE NORTH HALF BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN
MODELS WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, BUT NOT AS WINDY.
IN THE NEARSHORE EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FROM 4Z TONIGHT
THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW GALES IN THE NEARSHORE BUT IT REMAINS UNLIKELY. THESE
WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE COLD MAY CAUSE SOME HEAVY FREEZY SPRAY
CONCERNS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SO THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE WE NEED TO ISSUE A NEARSHORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING BUT
WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ONE AT THIS TIME.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
LMZ563-LMZ565...9 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 PM
TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
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