326
FXUS63 KMKX 220406
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY CONTINUE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, INCLUDING MKE, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT (1-2
INCHES) BUT TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL MID-WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1005 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR ZERO DEGREES. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
"WARMER" TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS COME IN WITH THEM. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO
HOVER NEAR NEGATIVE 20 DEGREES LATER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED,
AND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW
EXTRA HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH WAA ALOFT, THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS, WHICH
LEADS TO LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST GUSTS. THEREFORE, WILL
WAIT TO EXTEND TO SEE HOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE VERIFYING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INITIAL PUSH ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE TIMEFRAME, SOME LINGERING FLURRIES AND
POTENTIALLY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WHERE THE FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF I-94, THEN AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE
STALLED FRONT DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, GENERALLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER, IN REGIONS WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS, CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION MAY BRING CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
(SEEN MOST CLEARLY IN CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM-3K) IN A
NARROW BAND.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THOUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LARGELY BE DUE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND
NEGATIVE 20 DEGREES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT PERIOD
OF COOLING THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF SOME WAA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OUT WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EVENING THOUGH THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT IN A SOMEWHAT PROLONGED NATURE AS FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK
THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WAA/FRONTAL DRIVEN SNOW.
THE WAA SEEMS TO ACTUALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO KNOCK THE TEMP
PROFILE, IN PART, OUT OF THE DGZ. HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAY THIS
LOOKS IT COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF A LARGE DGZ AND SOME BETTER
SNOW RATES SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH THIS EVENT.
EVEN STILL THE DRY AIR INITIALLY MAY BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME,
THE WINDS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOW RATIOS, AND THE QPF WILL BE
LOW WITH THIS EVENT. THE QPF WILL BE LOWER GIVEN THE COLD (THUS
INNATELY DRIER DESPITE A MOIST COLUMN) AND LACK OF OVERWHELMING
FORCING WITH VERY LIMITED PVA ALOFT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE GOOD SNOW RATIO BUT GIVEN THE
WIND IT MAY BE TOUGH TO SEE THE HIGHER END RATIOS. OVERALL 1-2
INCHES POSSIBLE WITH UP TO 3 IN ISOLATED AREAS.
SNOW WILL END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE FILLING BACK IN FROM THE WEST.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST DOMINATING THE REGION WITH US CENTERED IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WHICH MEANS CONTINUED COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD THOUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR.
INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL WARM UP A BIT AS THE HIGH SLIDES OUT
AND WE RETURN SOUTHERN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
WITH A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WI
SATURDAY THOUGH IT LOOKS TOO DRY AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRIER HOWEVER GIVEN HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINGS GET A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RIDGING TO THE WEST AND TROUGHING TO THE
EAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 1005 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, WITH SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASING VISIBILITY AND BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND SHIFTING TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 250 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BRISK WEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS AND FRIGID AIR TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS UNTIL THURSDAY 0Z, WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD
WILL BE ADDED BY 3Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE UNTIL 0Z THURSDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. THE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE FOR THE SOUTH HALF, SLIGHTLY
MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE NORTH HALF BUT GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN
MODELS WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, BUT NOT AS WINDY.
IN THE NEARSHORE EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FROM 4Z TONIGHT
THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW GALES IN THE NEARSHORE BUT IT REMAINS UNLIKELY. THESE
WINDS IN ADDITION TO THE COLD MAY CAUSE SOME HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY CONCERNS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SO THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE WE NEED TO ISSUE A NEARSHORE HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WARNING BUT WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ONE AT THIS TIME.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 AM
WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3
AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM
WEDNESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page