328
FXUS63 KMKX 160414
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1014 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER LAND, PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS IN LAKESHORE COUNTIES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
TOWARDS THE SHORELINE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY, WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS HIGHEST.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS, WITH BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1008 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
FORECAST DETAILS, FOR THE MOST PART, REMAIN ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS STARTING TO GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER OFFSHORE OF DOOR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MODELS
DEPICT THIS BAND COMING ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING
TO MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES. RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BACKED OFF ON TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE,
BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY FOR NOW GIVEN THE FICKLENESS OF THESE BANDS WITH RESPECT
TO OBSERVATIONS VS MODEL OUTCOMES.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LINE OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY SPANS FROM BOSCOBEL TO FOND DU
LAC WISCONSIN, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND 500MB
PVA. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST,
PRODUCING 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OR LESS BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
ELSEWHERE, THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ENDED, WITH
ONLY POTENTIAL FOR VERY BRIEF / LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY AM. WE INTEND TO EXPIRE THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING UNLESS TRENDS
CHANCE.
FOR COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN, A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
STORY. A N-S ORIENTED LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS FORCED BY SHORELINE
CONVERGENCE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AND MAY DRIFT
OVER LAND LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST TOWARDS THE SHORELINE. BY 6 AM SUNDAY,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO PUSH THIS
LINE OF SNOW OUT OVER THE LAKE, LEAVING ONLY VERY BRIEF LIGHT SNOW
/ FLURRIES IN ITS WAKE. OUR CONFIDENCE IN SAID LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS HIGHEST OVER SHEBOYGAN COUNTY, HENCE THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE ONGOING WINTER WX ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM CST SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES (OZAUKEE, MILWAUKEE, RACINE,
KENOSHA) MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF TRENDS WARRANT. THE REST OF THE
ADVISORY IS PROGGED TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS, EXPLAINED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
REGION FOR SUN NT COURTESY OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EAST
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND CANADA, AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. THE STRONG HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
USA FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TUE MAINTAINING A FRIGID
AIRMASS ON NWLY WINDS FOR SRN WI. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY BELOW ZERO FOR
MON AM THEN -9F TO -14F FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TUE AM. HIGH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS. A
COLD WX ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR MON AM FOR WIND
CHILL TEMPS OF -15 TO -25F, BUT WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR LATE
MON NT-TUE AM VIA WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30F.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM WED-SAT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON LGT SNOW
CHANCES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA ON
WED BUT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE NW FOR THU-FRI.
ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR WOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM THE NBM AT THIS TIME.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1011 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
EXPECT MVFR AND LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE LAKESHORE, AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INLAND. NNE WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME GUSTY AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO TOMORROW AS A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE REGION. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
END BEFORE NOON TOMORROW AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DEEPEN TO 29.2 INCHES AS IT REACHES WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY, THEN NEW LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO 28.7 INCHES BY VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE AREAS AND POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL YIELD NORTHERLY GALES FOR SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN LINGER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ052 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM SUNDAY
TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 AM
MONDAY.
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