067
FXUS63 KMKX 161552
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
952 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW / FLURRIES CONTINUING OFF AND ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM AROUND 5 - 6 PM ONWARDS.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
SNOW MAY DRIFT (MOVE) WITH THE WIND.
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS, WITH BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 950 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FLURRIES / LIGHT SNOW THROUGH CONTINUING OFF AND
ON INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION.
ADDITIONALLY, NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH
THROUGHOUT TODAY ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SNOW PACK TO DRIFT
(MOVE), BUT ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUSPEND IT IN THE AIR (NO
PERSISTENT 'BLOWING' SNOW). AROUND 5 TO 6 PM CST TODAY, DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE FLURRY
ACTIVITY TO CEASE, LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS (WITH GUSTS TO ROUGHLY 20 MPH) INTO TONIGHT.
OUR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS ISSUED EARLIER
THIS MORNING (NO CHANGES). AN ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DURING THE ONGOING FORECAST ITERATION
(COVERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS OF
-20 TO -30). FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS MORNING, AS A WEAK WAVE
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES THROUGH. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.5" ARE POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO AN INCH
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
COLD ADVECTION, WITH MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. LINGERING BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
OF -15 TO -25 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH WIND CHILLS ONLY IMPROVING TO -10 TO
-20 FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE UPCOMING ARCTIC BLAST WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
MOST PLACES AND WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
A SLOW RECOVERY THEN EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK, OTHER THAN A SMALL CHANCE
OF SNOW LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE
AREA.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 950 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FUEL-ALT MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, POSSIBLY LIFTING TO 2,000 TO 3-000 FT MVFR IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY MAINTAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST COVERAGE.
LIGHT SNOW / FLURRIES WITH DROPS IN VISIBILITY TO 3 SM ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OFF AN ON INTO THE AFTERNOON (WITH A FEW
ISOLATED PATCHES OF IFR STILL NOTED IN RECENT OBSERVATIONS),
CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 5-6 PM TODAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 24-28 KT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK DRIFTING (MOVING), BUT NOT BEING
SUSPENDED IN THE AIR (NO PERSISTENT 'BLOWING' SNOW).
FOR TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT, LEADING
TO VFR LATE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE, BUT GUSTS DECREASE
BELOW 20 KT OVER TIME.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WHILE STEADILY DEEPENING. GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THE GALES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS THE
GALE WARNING OVER THE OPEN WATERS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING (LARGELY OVER THE OPEN WATERS) AND
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
WIZ072...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 11 AM MONDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 AM
MONDAY.
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