532
FXUS63 KMKX 162104
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL MIDNIGHT, THEN A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS, WITH BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK.
- FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT, WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 EXPECTED. MINIMUM AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO -10 DEGREES.
- FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO
-30 EXPECTED. MINIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
LOOKING UPSTREAM ON GOES SATELLITE, IT'S LOOKING LIKE SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING, WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW LOW AND
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS TO BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT. EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT'S WIND CHILLS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PRIOR EXPECTATIONS, -15
TO -25 DEGREES. TO FORM SAID WIND CHILLS, WE EXPECT MINIMUM
AIR TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO -10 DEGREES (COLDEST FURTHER WEST)
COINCIDENT WITH LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS RANGING
FROM 7 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 23 MPH (FASTEST FURTHER
EAST). THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
11 AM CST MONDAY TO COVER THIS THREAT.
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY. THE MOST
RECENT (18Z) RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MANAGED TO FORM A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY, BUT WE AIM TO KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (DEFINED AS 0.1" OR GREATER) AT 10% OR LESS
FOR NOW. OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRY.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, AIDED BY OUR FRESH SNOW PACK
ON THE GROUND (WHICH, GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS, IS HERE TO
STAY). THOUGH WINDS ARE A TOUCH SLOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AT -5 TO -15, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 DEGREES (WHICH QUALIFIES FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY). THUS, ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED.
EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SEASONAL "NORMAL" TEMPERATURES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THOUGH 2,000 FT BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT (KSBM, KMKE, KENW), A CLEARING OF THESE LOW CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO, LEADING TO VFR. FOR
TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR, BUT A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
3,000 FT (POSSIBLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE) POSSIBLE. A FEW
CLOUDS OVER 20,000 FT AS WELL. DRY WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS, SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS. SNOW MAY DRIFT AT TIMES,
BUT NO BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED.
FOR MONDAY, A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 2,000 TO
3,000 FT, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR. A
STRAY SNOW FLURRY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON, NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH. NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.0 INCHES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DEEPEN FURTHER TO 28.6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING, FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN LAKE LATE TONIGHT WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
WIZ072...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 11 AM MONDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 11 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 AM
MONDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page