636
FXUS63 KMKX 170411
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL MIDNIGHT, THEN A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS, WITH BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK.
- FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT, WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 EXPECTED. MINIMUM AIR
TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO -10 DEGREES.
- FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO
-30 EXPECTED. MINIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1010 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
CLEAR SKIES, LOW DEWPOINTS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE THE
NAME OF THE GAME TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LAKESHORE
AREAS REMAIN RESILIENT THIS EVENING AS THEY HOLD ONTO
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES WHILE INLAND AREAS HAVE
FALLEN BETWEEN 0-8 DEGREES. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE A BIT
NOW THAT DIURNAL MIXING HAS WELL AND TRULY ENDED. LAKESHORE
AREAS HOWEVER, ARE AGAIN STILL HOLDING ON. WITH NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25MPH BEING MEASURED. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS ITS
NONE TO SURPRISING THAT THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
BOARD ARE VERY SIMILAR RANGING FROM -3 TO -11 REGARDLESS OF
WHERE YOU ARE. ESSENTIALLY WHILE THE LAKESHORE IS WARMER, ITS
ALSO MORE WINDY WHICH EVENS OUT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
CALMER CONDITIONS INLAND WHEN TALKING ABOUT THE WIND CHILL.
EITHER WAY THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO KEEP FALLING AND WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
LOOSE THERE GUSTINESS.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
LOOKING UPSTREAM ON GOES SATELLITE, IT'S LOOKING LIKE SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING, WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW LOW AND
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS TO BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT. EXPECTATIONS FOR
TONIGHT'S WIND CHILLS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PRIOR EXPECTATIONS, -15
TO -25 DEGREES. TO FORM SAID WIND CHILLS, WE EXPECT MINIMUM
AIR TEMPERATURES OF 0 TO -10 DEGREES (COLDEST FURTHER WEST)
COINCIDENT WITH LATE NIGHT / EARLY MORNING WIND SPEEDS RANGING
FROM 7 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 23 MPH (FASTEST FURTHER
EAST). THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
11 AM CST MONDAY TO COVER THIS THREAT.
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY. THE MOST
RECENT (18Z) RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MANAGED TO FORM A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY, BUT WE AIM TO KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (DEFINED AS 0.1" OR GREATER) AT 10% OR LESS
FOR NOW. OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRY.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK, AIDED BY OUR FRESH SNOW PACK
ON THE GROUND (WHICH, GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS, IS HERE TO
STAY). THOUGH WINDS ARE A TOUCH SLOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AT -5 TO -15, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 DEGREES (WHICH QUALIFIES FOR A HIGH-END
ADVISORY). THUS, ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED.
EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SEASONAL "NORMAL" TEMPERATURES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1010 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES. THIS SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 2-4 KFT WHICH
COULD BRING IN SOME SPORADIC MVFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS THESE CLOUDS DEVELOP CAN'T RULE OUT
THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES. GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS ANY
UPWARD LIFT INTO A CLOUD DECK COULD PRODUCE THE LIGHTEST OF
FLURRIES. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM FLURRIES.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKESHORE AREAS
REMAIN GUSTY THIS EVENING BUT THESE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.0 INCHES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DEEPEN FURTHER TO 28.6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING, FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN LAKE LATE TONIGHT WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 11
AM MONDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MONDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 AM
MONDAY.
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