835
FXUS63 KMKX 171613
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD CONDITIONS, WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS AT TIMES, CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A HIGH END COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECTING WIND CHILLS OF NEGATIVE 21 TO
NEGATIVE 29 DEGREES, BUT A FEW AREAS OF NEGATIVE 30 DEGREES OR
BELOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A SCATTERED
/ BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS, DECIDED TO
THROW IN A 20% CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS INSUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS,
BUT SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH ANY OF
THESE LOW CLOUDS (IF THEY DEVELOP) UNTIL SUNSET TODAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES / WIND CHILLS REMAIN ON TRACK.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 419 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW
NEGATIVE 20 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING, WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHERING IN A DEEP ARCTIC
AIRMASS. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGING FROM
ZERO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES IN THE WISCONSIN
RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BECOME GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS BELOW NEGATIVE 20
DEGREES. THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND NEGATIVE 27 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
RECOVER AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER MIDDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTED. STILL, EXPECT BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND UP TO 20 MPH IN SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FARTHER INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET, BUT CONSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. EVEN
THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, THE LOWER TEMPERATURES FROM WELL WITHIN THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT MUCH EASIER TO DIP INTO COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST TONIGHT THROUGH 12 PM
CST TUESDAY. A FEW AREAS MAY DIP BELOW NEGATIVE 30 DEGREE WIND
CHILLS FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
SPECIFICALLY IN THE FOND DU LAC TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
AREAS. HOWEVER, THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WINDS AND
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN WIND SPEEDS TO WARRANT ANY
REGIONS OF UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING (CRITERIA
NEGATIVE 30 DEGREES).
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS REMAIN BITTERLY COLD THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE
AGAIN. WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITHIN THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE, EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO.
TUESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH LOWS IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO (SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE). OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE
NEGATIVE TEENS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY SEEING
NEGATIVE 20 DEGREE WIND CHILLS BRIEFLY GOING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 419 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER DOWN THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND HIGHS NEAR 10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY,
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE 500 MB TROUGH
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH (15-30% CHANCE).
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD FOLLOWING A
DEEPENING LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS SHIFT TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH BECOMES
STATIONARY AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES,
EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE THIRTIES TO NEAR 40
DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR, EXPECTING A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 3,000 FT, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR AND A 20% CHANCE OF FLURRIES. SHORTLY AFTER DARK THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ALONG WITH THE FLURRY CHANCES. VFR AND
DECREASING NW WINDS INTO TONIGHT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 419 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT IN NEARSHORE
REGIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND STRENGTHENS INTO TUESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 11
AM MONDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...9 PM
MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
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