149
FXUS63 KMKX 180411
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A HIGH END COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECTING WIND CHILLS OF NEGATIVE 24
TO NEGATIVE 29 DEGREES, BUT A FEW AREAS OF NEGATIVE 30 DEGREES
OR BELOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- A PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
AT TIMES, CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1011 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHTER IN
COMPARISON WITH THE PREVIOUS EVENING, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
BETWEEN -15 AND -20 DEGREES. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND CAA CONTINUE TO DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. THE
WORST OF THE WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE IN
THE SWEET SPOT OF ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 AM. THE FORECAST IS STILL ON
TRACK. BUNDLE UP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IF OUT AND ABOUT.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
WIND CHILL EXPECTATIONS FOR TONIGHT HAVE NOT CHANGED. A
COMBINATION OF MINIMUM TEMPS -5 TO -15 FAHRENHEIT COINCIDENT
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH (WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH
POSSIBLE) WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF -24 TO -29. NOTE THAT
THIS IS CONSIDERED A 'HIGH END' ADVISORY EVENT (RATHER THAN A
WARNING-LEVEL EVENT). IN A FEW AREAS, THE BEST COMBINATION OF
WIND AND LOW TEMPS MAY LEAD TO A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF -30 WIND
CHILLS (PARTICULARLY IN FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES, AS
WELL AS ELEVATED TERRAIN IN SOUTHWESTERN WI). THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY RUNS FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY. WITHIN
THIS WINDOW, THE WORST WIND CHILLS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM 5 AM TO
8 AM. FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN MAY OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 10 TO
20 MINUTES. BUNDLE UP!
DAYTIME HIGHS OF 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED TUESDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECTING LOW TEMPS OF -1
TO -10, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -23. HENCE, NOT AS
BAD AS TONIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 305 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
PRECIPITATION:
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
PASSING UPPER-LEVEL LOW (MOST EVIDENT AT 500MB) BRINGS A 10 TO
30% CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING, ONLY A
DUSTING IF APPLICABLE (VERY FAST TRACKED SYSTEM). A SIMILAR
STORY (WITH EVEN LOWER CHANCES) FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
LATE FRIDAY / EARLY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS:
THE PRESENT 'ARCTIC AIRMASS' IS PROGGED TO RESIDE HERE THROUGH
MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. BY LATE THIS
WEEK, DAYTIME HIGHS RISE TO THE 20S. THEN TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
AROUND SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S, LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S).
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1011 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BE
SCATTERED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 305 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.7 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT, STRENGTHENING TO 31.1 INCHES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
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