126
FXUS63 KMKX 181624
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1024 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CST TODAY
WITH WIND CHILLS GRADUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE THRESHOLD THIS
MORNING.
- A SECOND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 23
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
REACHING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1025 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WINDS CHILLS HERE AND THERE CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL CLIMB
ABOVE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER WITH CLEAR SKIES WE ARE STILL ONLY
EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THIS
EVENING LOWS WILL FALL QUICKLY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10AM WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN
THE PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH
IN TONIGHT. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL
MUCH MORE ONCE CLOUDS PUSH IN BUT IT COULD BE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS FULLY PUSH IN. THUS THE LOWEST
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH WITH CLOUDS PUSHING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS CHILLS WILL THUS BE HIGHEST FURTHER
NORTH WITH MUCH OF THE CWA HOVERING AROUND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 359 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CST TODAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE NEGATIVE 13 TO NEGATIVE 16 DEGREE
RANGE IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO FOND DU LAC COUNTY. LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH STEADY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH EXPECTED. WIND CHILL
VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE NEGATIVE 15 TO NEGATIVE 25 DEGREE RANGE
WILL INCREASE TO NEGATIVE 25 TO NEGATIVE 29 DEGREES AS WINDS
INCREASE. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE NEGATIVE 30 DEGREE WIND CHILLS OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT THESE VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE LONG DURATION OR WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCES BASED ON
AVAILABLE MODELING THIS MORNING (AROUND 45 PERCENT) ARE SEEN IN
THE FOND DU LAC TO SHEBOYGAN REGION, AWAY FROM THE LAKE. THIS IS
THE REGION WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST.
TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE WIND CHILLS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEAR 10 DEGREES, AND WIND CHILL VALUES RISING INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WINDS AROUND 10
MPH, UP TO 15 MPH IN EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 MPH AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR NEGATIVE 10
DEGREES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS
A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND A NEAR-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH . IF
THESE CLOUDS WORK THEIR WAY IN EARLY ENOUGH, TEMPERATURES MAY
STAY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST. WITH CONSISTENT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES BRINGING
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 23 DEGREES BELOW ZERO,
HAVE ISSUED A SECOND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (10 TO 25
PERCENT, WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ENDING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER, FROM NEAR
ZERO TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 359 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SWEEPS NORTHEASTWARD, EXPECTING ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS AND
MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOLLOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FROM THE
NORTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO DID NOT MODIFY
NBM POPS AT THIS TIME.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1025 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR TAF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SOME HIGHER CIGS START TO PUSH IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 359 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM CST
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING, BRINGING BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING,
BRINGING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
WIZ072...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
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