903
FXUS63 KMKX 190249
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 23 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
REACHING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 845 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND DELAYING THE TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS RAPIDLY AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTED. HOWEVER, STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS
TO FALL ENOUGH WITH ENOUGH OF A WIND TO STILL SEE WIND CHILLS
DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S BELOW ZERO RANGE TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL WI WHERE THE CLOUDS
ARE THINNEST. THUS WILL LET THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY RIDE AS
IS. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THIS EVENING LOWS WILL FALL QUICKLY AGAIN WITH ANOTHER COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10AM
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT GIVEN THE PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HIGH
CLOUDS TO PUSH IN LATER TONIGHT. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL MUCH MORE ONCE CLOUDS PUSH IN BUT IT
COULD BE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS FULLY PUSH
IN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE SUGGESTED A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH WITH CLOUDS
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH PEAK WIND CHILLS AROUND -20 DEGREES.
DESPITE STILL BEING COLD WEDNESDAY WE WILL START TO SEE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE, ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER CLOSED
LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT US FROM GETTING QUITE AS COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHT. NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS EXPECTED BUT SOME FLURRIES TO
EVEN LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE (UP TO 20% CHANCE) GIVEN
THE UPPER LOW PIVOTING THROUGH. THE LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS IS THE PRIMARY DRAWBACK FOR POTENTIAL BUT IF
THAT LAYER CAN MOISTEN UP ENOUGH IT WILL INCREASE OUR POTENTIAL.
THIS IS PRIMARILY THE CASE FOR THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA
BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILE IN MODELS.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
WE WILL GRADUALLY START WARMING UP INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OUT AND
1000-500MB THICKNESSES BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE 30S
WITH HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK GETTING INTO THE 40S. IT DOES LOOK A
BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR TEMPS,
HOWEVER.
AS FOR PRECIP THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD.
WHILE MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT MAY MAKE FOR SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
ALOFT THE LACK OF MOISTURE AT VARIOUS LEVELS WILL LIKELY PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL. PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A CORRESPONDING
UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE PRECIP POTENTIAL
FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH BUT THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 845 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE
THE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOWER, MVFR
CEILINGS AND A BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITY, BUT THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOWER (<20% PRECIP CHANCES) GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP JUST TO THE WEST.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY INTO THIS EVENING AS IT SLIPS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS INTO
THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD, CLOSER TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
BRINGING LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BACK TO THE REGION. LIGHTER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
PLAINS. NO NEARSHORE SMALL CRAFT CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-
WIZ072...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...NONE.
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