031
FXUS63 KMKX 191611
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE (10-25%) ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN FOR WIND CHILLS AROUND -20 DEGREES.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW 20S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
REACHING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1000 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS MORNING. THE OVERNIGHT
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS LOCAL
WIND CHILLS HAVE INCREASED ABOVE CRITERIA. EVEN SO, IT WILL BE
ANOTHER FRIGID DAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE, AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
FAR INLAND.
WIND CHILLS WILL RISE FROM THE NEGATIVE TEENS THIS MORNING TO
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 346 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
AS WINDS BECOME STEADY FROM THE NORTHWEST AGAIN THIS MORNING,
EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20 TO
NEGATIVE 24 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE. LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN SUNRISE AND 9 AM CST, WITH A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ENDING AT 10 AM CST AS WIND CHILLS RISE ABOVE NEGATIVE
20 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WIND CHILLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND ZERO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE WEST. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TEENS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, WITH DEEPER CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE (10-25% CHANCE)
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
INSULATE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN, AND THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
POTENTIALLY SEEING WIND CHILLS NEAR NEGATIVE 20 DEGREES.
CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE 20
DEGREE WIND CHILLS, SO NOT ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 346 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER
NEGATIVE TEENS INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
BEGINNING TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND BRING WARMER RETURN FLOW TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN INLAND FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT BEING SAID, WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN NEAR
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY, WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PROGRESSES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO EVEN LOW 40S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING CENTRAL
CANADA WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BRINGING IN THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DRAPED FROM THESE SYSTEMS
IN CANADA. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1011 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUING VFR CIGS AND VIS AMID HIGH
CLOUDS AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TO NEBRASKA/KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY INTO TOMORROW, WITH MODEST BREEZES TO 15
KNOTS AT TIMES.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 346 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY,
BRINGING LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES,
WITH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CANADA.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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