737
FXUS63 KMKX 200325
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW (~10% CHANCES; MORE LIKELY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE) IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
- WINDS CHILLS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FRIGID WITH
AIR TEMPERATURE LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO -5, AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, REACHING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED 920 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE DECREASING GIVEN THE DRIER SURFACE AIR THAN
ANTICIPATED LEADING TO GREATER TD DEPRESSIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLURRIES THOUGH IT STILL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 256 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AN UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POCKETS OF
VORTICITY, AS WILL AS SOME MOISTURE SEEDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
AND LAKE MICHIGAN, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN
OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ROOTED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE, SO SOME FLURRIES (10 TO 20% CHANCES) CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AIR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO -5 AMID MODEST
WINDS. WHILE IT WILL BE A FRIGID NIGHT, WIND CHILLS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS. SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
WILL COME CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT AS ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR WIND CHILLS TO BE AT OR WARMER THAN -20 F.
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 20S AS RIDGE BUILDS IN
ALOFT AND CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 302 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WEAK WAA OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS COME AROUND TO
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL REORGANIZE THROUGH SATURDAY AND A LARGE
WESTERN USA RIDGE WILL ALLOW SOME STRONGER WAA TO OCCUR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL APPROACH NORMAL ON SUNDAY (~33 FOR
MSN AND ~35 FOR MKE), AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION SPIKES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. AT THIS TIME,
WE LOOK TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE CLIPPER INDICATING RAIN TO
A RAIN SNOW MIX. WE MAY ALSO BE IN FOR SOME FOG NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AIR GETS ADVECTED OVER THE COLD SNOWPACK, AND DEWPOINTS
RISE ABOVE 32 DEGREES.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 925 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MODEST
BREEZES TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES, HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKE. TONIGHT,
LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LEADING TO CEILINGS
RANGING FROM 3500 TO 5000FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ROOTED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO SOME LIGHT FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PREVENT FLURRIES FROM REACHING THE GROUND
TONIGHT. THURSDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS,
PRIMARILY CLOSER TO THE LAKE BUT FOR THE MOST PART CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCT WITH ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF BKN POTENTIAL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 244 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTH AND EXPOSES LAKE MICHIGAN TO A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY, LEADING TO AREAS OF MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, MAINLY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
WINDS EASE FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS EAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS
AND MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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