980
FXUS63 KMKX 200959
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
359 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW (~10-20% CHANCES; MORE LIKELY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE) POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH.
- WINDS CHILLS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FRIGID
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO -5, AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERAL QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S FAVOR RAIN TO PERHAPS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AS
SHORTWAVES PROGRESS NORTH OF WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MAY FAVOR SNOW AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH ILLINOIS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
FRIGID TEMPERATURES LINGER THIS MORNING, WITH LOWS NEAR POSITIVE
5 DEGREES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LOWS INLAND NEAR ZERO DEGREES
AND LOWS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN NEAR NEGATIVE 5 DEGREES. WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS CLOSE TO NEGATIVE 20 POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION, FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT
SNOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF WISCONSIN, CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOW 20S WITH STEADY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LINGERING AND
KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES REMAIN, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR RAPID COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
INLAND AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR
TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE HUDSON BAY, ALLOWING FOR STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S ONCE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WAA CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS LARGE WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EXPECTED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER MELTING
SNOWPACK.
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS, SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
NORTHERN EDGES OF THIS RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MAJORITY OF THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES KEEP WISCONSIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX. WEDNESDAY, MODELING AGREES THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WOULD GENERALLY
PUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
(CURRENTLY 30-40%). CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT WILL INCREASE AS
IT APPROACHES.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4000 FT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN TERMINALS THROUGH
KUES. FLURRIES WILL MOVE OUT BY MID-MORNING, WITH CLOUD DECKS
SCATTERING OUT QUICKLY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT TODAY, LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTHWEST BREEZES THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
OPEN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN TO BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE IN THE HUDSON BAY WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT AND POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN
WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEARSHORE REGIONS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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