200
FXUS63 KMKX 201558 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERAL QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S FAVOR RAIN TO PERHAPS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX, AS
SHORTWAVES PROGRESS NORTH OF WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT MAY FAVOR SNOW, AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH ILLINOIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 958 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS
CLEARED OUT, THOUGH THERE MAY BE MORE DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
NOT CONFIDENT WITH HOW CLOUD COVER WILL EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT FOR NOW KEPT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHEST IN
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT, AS THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY AIR. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
CHILLY LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WEST TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 20S.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
FRIGID TEMPERATURES LINGER THIS MORNING, WITH LOWS NEAR POSITIVE
5 DEGREES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LOWS INLAND NEAR ZERO DEGREES
AND LOWS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN NEAR NEGATIVE 5 DEGREES. WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS CLOSE TO NEGATIVE 20 POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION, FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT
SNOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF WISCONSIN, CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE LOW 20S WITH STEADY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LINGERING AND
KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES REMAIN, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR RAPID COOLING, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
INLAND AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR
TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE HUDSON BAY, ALLOWING FOR STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S ONCE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WAA CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS LARGE WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EXPECTED. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARM AIR FLOWS OVER MELTING
SNOWPACK.
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS, SHORTWAVES RIDING THE
NORTHERN EDGES OF THIS RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MAJORITY OF THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES KEEP WISCONSIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX. WEDNESDAY, MODELING AGREES THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WOULD GENERALLY
PUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
(CURRENTLY 30-40%). CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT WILL INCREASE AS
IT APPROACHES.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 958 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
LOW CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET AGL IN SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST
OF THE AREA HAS CLEARED OUT, THOUGH THERE MAY BE MORE DIURNAL
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 2500 FEET AGL THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.
NOT CONFIDENT WITH HOW CEILINGS WILL EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
FOR NOW KEPT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS IN AREA TERMINALS,
WITH THE BROKEN CEILINGS TOWARD THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT, AS THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY AIR. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGHOUT TODAY, LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTHWEST BREEZES THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
OPEN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THEN TO BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE IN THE HUDSON BAY WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT AND POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN
WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEARSHORE REGIONS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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