129
FXUS63 KMKX 202051
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
251 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY, THEN WARMING UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW MELT
AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS THAT AFFECTS THE LAKESHORE
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. KEPT SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY EVENING, BEFORE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH IN TO THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING.
CHILLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE MORE
NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FAR WEST TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN
STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
SATURDAY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLES.
A RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB. ABOUT 20 TO 30
PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, KEPT 20 TO 30
PERCENT POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES THEN
SHOW MOST MEMBERS WITH QPF FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEPT THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FROM THE NBM FOR THIS PERIOD AS
WELL TO REFLECT THIS TREND. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS TO BE MORE
RAIN THAN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW, SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
TEMPERATURE PROFILES EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO GAIN
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPES.
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT (SMALL SPREAD IN NBM AND
SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL MEMBERS) WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S FOR MONDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. NBM SEEMS
TO HAVE THIS TREND HANDLED WELL, SO LEFT THESE VALUES IN THE
FORECAST.
GIVEN THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING, MAY
SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK, AS THE SNOW
PACK GRADUALLY MELTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER COLD SURFACES NEXT WEEK, AS GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FREEZING ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 251 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CEILINGS AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET AGL
THAT AFFECTS THE LAKESHORE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AS
WELL. KEPT SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING, BEFORE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH
IN TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 251 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL
SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 30.6 INCHES ON FRIDAY, LEADING
TO LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHENING.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES IN HUDSON BAY WILL LEAD
TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND LINGER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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