554
FXUS63 KMKX 211605
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
- THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS TO THE FORECAST MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION.
THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN
CHASING THE LATEST TEMP TRENDS WITH WARMER TEMPS CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 348 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: 2 AM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KANSAS CITY VICINITY. APPARENT IN THE
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG AN
APPROXIMATE DES MOINES-TWIN CITIES AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH.
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING & ATTENDANT CHILLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO PULL CLOSER,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE. THE
KANSAS CITY HIGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST, AN UPPER
JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING,
ULTIMATELY CROSSING THE STATE ON SATURDAY. UPPER DIVERGENCE &
ATTENDANT LIFT AFFILIATED WITH THE JET WILL RESULT IN CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 348 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SYNOPSIS: PREDOMINANTLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING FLOW, A TRIO OF DISTURBANCES ARE
PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. EACH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH THE DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO
BRING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FIVE TO
TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON THURSDAY, WHEN A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: THE FIRST OF THREE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE CORE OF THE MID-UPPER FORCING & ATTENDANT SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, WHICH LEADS TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THE BEST OVERALL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO OUR
NORTH IN THIS FORECAST. NEVERTHELESS, ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ALONG/NORTH OF I-94,
WHICH HAS MOTIVATED ~15-30% PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. IN THE EVENT PRECIP OCCURS IN THESE LOCATIONS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW.
CURRENT ENSEMBLE PROBS SUGGEST THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT (TRACE OR LESS), THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE
COMING FORECASTS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY: THE SECOND OF THREE DISTURBANCES IS
PROGGED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. UNLIKE THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
SYSTEM, MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE CENTER OF THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD
PRECIP PROBS THUS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
PERIOD. SEVERAL DAYS OF SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW & ATTENDANT WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE LAST OF THREE DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
COMPARED TO THE FIRST TWO DISTURBANCES, GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
IS EVIDENT IN THIS SYSTEM, WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE DISAGREEING OVER THE
LOCATION OF THE BEST UPPER FORCING & AFFILIATED SURFACE LOW
POSITION. WHAT, IF ANY, INFLUENCES DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL HAVE
ADDS FURTHER TO UNCERTAINTY. AT PRESENT, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE, WITH AMOUNTS & DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPES BEING HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
UNCERTAINTIES. WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN LATER FORECASTS AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 1005 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST.
OTHERWISE, ONLY LOOKING AT HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS (>150KFT) TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 348 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, 1040 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY, ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST INTO THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS 998 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC, MAINTAINING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS
& LINGERING COLD AIR TO SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH 994 MB LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK FROM MANITOBA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HUDSON
BAY ON MONDAY. AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG & AHEAD
OF SAID AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN NEARSHORE ZONES TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY THIS EVENING & TONIGHT, WHEN A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, THOUGH THE GREATEST OF WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE
WAVE FORECAST, AND THE ANTICIPATED BRIEF NATURE OF ANY 22+ KNOT
GUSTS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. WILL NEVERTHELESS MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAKE ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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